Playing the Indian Card

Thursday, April 16, 2020

A Journal of the Plague Year





Out and about today because I needed to mail a couple of letters—one to the government with a time limit on it. I also needed change for laundry. Not being out and about, I have not accumulated any. In ordinary times, I could, in a pinch, have used a change machine at the laundromat across the street. But it is closed due to the virus.

There was not much foot traffic in my neighbourhood, but cars seemed to circulate at the usual level. There was a lineup at the supermarket, but not long.

The post office was not open yet. They were delaying opening by an hour due to coronavirus.

The day was sunny and cold. Daffodils and dandelions were in bloom. Saw one of our black squirrels, apparently not common in other parts of North America, and a big fat robin. Spring is here.

Back out an hour later to try again. Got the letters sent, but could not get change for laundry. The postal clerk said they could not get change for their float, because the bank is closed.

Banks closed? This seems to me sure to become a grave problem—businesses cannot get change for their floats? Shouldn’t banks be an essential service? Apart from practical matters, it seems to me important psychologically for banks to be open. It is unsettling if money is suddenly not available; shades of bank runs.

Trudeau yesterday said Canada must remain in lockdown for some time to come. Last week he said the restrictions would apply until sometime in the summer.

I think he is foolish to say this, and it is not going to happen.

You can see a lot of restlessness already in the US. The mood seems to be shifting quickly towards getting back to work. With or without an effective treatment, with or without widespread testing, I hear suggestions that the virus follows a natural curve, a surge and then abatement, and in most places we are on the downward slope of that surge. People are saying the shutdown was an overreaction.

That may not be objectively true, but it looks as though US governments cannot keep a lid on things much longer, and it looks as though they have no intention to do so. A consortium of states in the Northeast have declared their intent to reopen; a consortium of states in the West have done the same; and Trump says the feds will have a plan soon.

If the US starts reopening, there is no way Trudeau can keep Canada closed. He now risks being blamed for a panicked overreaction, or a grab for power.

Aside from this, it is bad psychology to say in advance that you plan to keep things closed for much longer. First of all, you do not really know if this is necessary; we are learning as we go. Secondly, you need to give people hope that things could get better soon. Hope is important.

I think the truth is that Trudeau is panicked. I think he has shown a tendency to panic before this. We are unlucky he is PM at such a time.

Some premiers are doing a far better job: Legault in Quebec, Ford in Ontario, Kenney in Alberta. They are essentially working around Trudeau, and Kenney is pretty open about it.

It is a pity none of them are running for the vacant Tory leadership. Kenney in particular.

I predict things are going to open up soon, in the US and around the world. I think the worst is over.




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