New Hampshire Prediction

I expect Sanders to win New Hampshire. Buttigieg should come a strong second based on his boost in Iowa, whether earned or not. Klobuchar had a strong debate performance, so I see her surging to third. Warren fourth, Biden fifth.

With this result, Warren drops out. If she can’t do better than fourth in New Hampshire, next door to her home state, where will she do better?

Klobuchar is unlikely to drop out so long as she is surging. Who knows how high she might yet go? And Biden is unlikely to drop out, because his campaign had always written off Iowa and New Hampshire, calling for their first win in South Carolina. Unless he is running out of money.

This leaves Sanders as the sole major candidate for the insurgent left of the party, and the votes of the more moderate politicos split among Buttigieg, Biden, Klobuchar and, going forward, Bloomberg. This helps Sanders. He is closest to Warren ideologically. There is bad blood between the two campaigns, but I think the Sanders people have more reason to be angry at Warren than vice versa.

Buttigieg is likely to underperform in South Carolina. He has a problem with black voters, and I think it is insurmountable. It has to do with his preppiness. It probably won’t sit well with southern whites either. That is liable to keep the votes, and the delegate counts, fairly evenly split among him, Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg for the near future.

This, it seems to me, gives Sanders the best shot at the nomination.