Iowa Prediction

Iowa caucuses are today. Let me make a fool of myself by making a prediction.

I expect a Bernie Sanders blowout. I expect that Biden will underperform.

I base this largely on the fact that the caucus process is complicated and rewards organization on the ground. This favours the more committed.

Two other candidates who may do surprisingly well are Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer. Yang’s followers also have a high level of enthusiasm. Steyer has the money to buy organization, and may benefit as a broadly unobjectionable alternative when Biden or others fail to gather enough votes. 

We shall see,,,