Wild in the Streets in Hong Kong

The current situation in Hong Kong seems another example of the world gone mad.

When the Arab Spring protests arose, it was unpredictable. Governments were only engaged in oppression as usual. Yet this outburst looks provoked. Anyone could have seen the Hong Kong general public would be outraged by the new extradition measure.

But then, equally mad is China’s recent rattling of sabres over the South China Sea.

China has been steadily rising in both economic and in military power. And so the calculation should be simple: war is against her interests. Given only peace, she holds a winning hand. And war tomorrow is likely to be more successful than war today, on into the indefinite future. Accordingly, the sensible strategy would have been to keep smiling at everybody, bowing nicely, and looking as non-threatening as possible.

There can really be only one explanation for the Chinese government’s current conduct; and it is the same that explains Justin Trudeau’s recent conduct, or that of high-tech firms like Google.

The Chinese leadership knows something that convinces them that, in fact, for them, the future will not be better than the past. If they delay their drive for regional hegemony, they will soon be in a worse, not a better, position for war. And, if they do not brave these mass protests in Hong Kong today, protests in the foreseeable future will be far worse. They feel they will need this draconian weapon they are now demanding.

The Chinese government expects collapse.