Who Won the First Democratic Debate?

Who won the Democratic debates?

Matt Drudge’s unscientific online poll has Tulsi Gabbard winning far and away. This is supported as well by a Washington Examiner poll, and by the number of Google searches for her name during the debate.

Both Drudge’s and the Washington Examiner’s audience is well to the right of the Democratic Party’s. This indicates that Gabbard has the crossover potential, and so probably the best shot in a general election; but not necessarily in the primaries.

On the other hand, polls suggest that the Democratic Party is also well to the left of actual Democrats. Forty percent of the latter call themselves either moderate or conservative.

In any case, Gabbard’s ant-war message looks to me like a winner either left or right. It seems only reasonable to suppose that, after almost two decades of Afghanistan and Iraq, Americans are tired of foreign entanglements. Who could blame them?

The idea alarms my Filipina wife. If the US pulls back, it could mean disaster for a lot of smaller players around the world, who count on them. But from the American perspective, has it ever been worth it? They only get blamed for the sacrifice.

The odd fact that the Democratic Party establishment and the media seem to hate Gabbard probably works in her favour. The average American is angry, and wants to buck authority. Gabbard now gives them that opportunity, if ideology keeps them away from Trump. 

On the second night, the winner seems to have been Kamala Harris. She has always had great potential, but had not caught on. Her exchange with Biden on busing seems to be the sound clip that will be remembered. Hurts Biden badly, and seems to give her moral authority over him, which matters a lot. She looked like a leader. 

To be fair to Joe, her attack was probably not. Bismark defined politics as the art of the possible, Biden's stance on busing may well have been what was politically wisest at the time, if not desirable in absolute terms. He is here another victim of politics' newly long tail, thanks to social media.

The Drudge poll actually gives the second debate to Andrew Yang. But that is a bit suspect, since the moderators hardly let him speak. Maybe he benefited from this, since everyone else seemed so angry at each other.

Harris came second with Drudge: she may have less crossover appeal, but surely more potential with Democrats. At the same time, taking Biden down a notch may have helped Gabbard as much as herself. If Biden’s support is the party moderates, they are probably not now going to move to Harris, who has been running to the left. If Biden seems weak, they need a new standard-bearer. O’Rourke got mauled in the debates; Buttigieg seems to be hitting rough seas due to events back in South Bend.

It is almost as though the seas are parting for Gabbard.