Shy Tories

Nerves are getting frayed now on the right. The lead Romney had gained over Obama is not lengthening in the latest polls; instead, the race is tightening up. At the same time, Romney seems never to have broken into the lead in Ohio, which he almost needs to win.

But a recent poll gives us some suggestion how significant the Shy Tory/Bradley effect might be in this new era of unreliable polling, when only 9% of contacts will even cooperate with the pollster. A Marist poll of Iowa shows that 45% of Iowans have already voted. As it happens, the state keeps tallies. It reports that 32.2% have already voted.

The difference between those numbers is the Shy Tory factor. Everyone figures it is more socially responsible to have already voted; both campaigns are urging it. So that many folks are prepared to lie about it to a stranger.

It follows that they are equally likely to lie about whom they are going to support. If voting for Obama is thought to be the more socially acceptable position, his numbers could be out by a similar margin. That is, if he is currently polling 47%, he may really only have 35% support—a historic Republican landslide.

A different poll, WaPo/ABC’s national one, claims those who have already voted or who plan to cast early ballots break for Obama 57 to 42 percent; whereas those who say they plan to vote on election day break for Romney, 54 to 43 percent.

It is odd that there would be this wide discrepancy. Especially since other measures suggest the Republicans are, on the whole, more energized this cycle than are Democrats. One would expect those who are more energized to be more likely to vote early.

Putting the two figures together makes me suspect that most of the people who are fibbing about voting early are also saying they voted for Obama. Suggesting the Shy Tory/Bradley effect is boosting Obama’s poll numbers.

I think there’s a decent chance that the numbers among those who say they plan to vote on election day are the real numbers overall: 54% Romney, 43% Obama.

A historic blowout.

Again, polls that do not control for party affiliation are coming up with odd figures for party affiliation: historically high numbers of Democrats likely to vote. This is intrinsically unlikely--Democratic enthusiasm is lower this year than 2008, and there are fewer registered Democrats. So again, it looks like Shy Toryism is making people say they are Democrats who are not.

We’ll see…