Republicans and Immigration

Ellis Island, 1902

Several commentators have suggested, in the wake of the defeat of Mitt Romney in the recent US election, that the Republican Party faces a Hobson’s Choice. Demographics have made the Hispanic vote too significant: had Reagan faced the same demographics Romney did, he too would have gone down to defeat, instead of posting a landslide victory.

If the Republicans cannot win over Hispanics, then, their share of the vote is presumably destined to gradually decline from now on. But if, on the other hand, Republicans try to win the votes of Hispanics by agreeing to looser immigration from Hispanic countries—they are adding to their demographic decline. Perhaps their share of the Hispanic vote might go up from one quarter to one third; with a growing number of Hispanics, that’s still an electoral loss.

Little Italy, NYC, 1900.

I feel this line of thinking is too gloomy. Granted, recent immigrants almost always gravitate to the left-wing party, because the left-wing party is in the business of dealing with corporate, not individual, rights and interests, and they still self-identify as members of a minority before they see themselves as Americans. Nevertheless, consider the parallel example of Canada: its influx of immigrants has been proportionately greater than that of the US, yet it has shifted from a left-wing party being dominant to a right-wing party being dominant over the same period.

The Canadian Conservatives have followed the policy I would recommend for the Republicans: they have never become the anti-immigration party. As a result, the immigrant vote has not gone as heavily against them as it seems to go against the Republicans, and this has made up for the growth in the number of immigrants.

Maggie and Jiggs return to their Bowery roots, 1940.

If we look as well at US history, the greatest wave of immigration was actually 1900-1924, with the peak year in 1907. New and stronger restrictions were put in place in 1924. Which party held the presidency then? But for Wilson’s eight years, the Republicans.

In any case, open immigration is the proper liberal (that is, in current North American terms, conservative) approach. It will keep the economy competitive and better respects human rights and human equality.

Are Hispanics different? Are they more automatically left-wing than other immigrant groups? Surely the example of the Cuban-Americans in Florida suggests they are not. Other immigrant groups, such as the Irish or the Italians, have started out being solidly Democratic, but now figure prominently on the right: Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Paul Ryan, Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity, Antonin Scalia, Sam Alito… Hispanics will soon move right as well. No cause for any great concern in terms of the balance of power. Ideas matter, not skin colour or ethnicity.

Just kidding. You can all go home now.