Shy Tory Factor

Here's a British writer arguing that a combination of the Bradley effect and the "Shy Tory Factor" might mean Romney and Ryan are actually well ahead of Obama, despite the polls showing the race as achingly close.

Tom Bradley, original and eponymous victim of the "Bradley effect."

The strongest argument for this is, as he notes in his conclusion, the apparent aggressiveness of the Obama campaign recently. They really do seem to be acting panicky, with their over-the-top attacks, although this does not seem to be justified by the polls.

Neil Kinnock, original victim of the "Shy Tory Syndrome."