My Election Prediction

Bare Conservative majority.

I think Layton and the NDP have peaked too soon. A large part of their polling figure is, I think, a "none of the above" protest. They have surged quickly enough, though, that now the possibility is evident that they might actually get into power. At that point, I think a substantial part of their support up until now may want to back off.

I think they will still edge the Liberals, in the popular vote, but it will be close.