Every Rae Has His Day

Latest buzz on the Liberal leadership race is that Bob Rae is now the frontrunner. He trails Ignatieff in first ballot support, but not by that much; and he has greater second-ballot growth potential.

The delegate figures this weekend will tell a clearer story; but this sounds plausible. If Ignatieff has fallen back, and if Rae has surged, I attribute it to one thing: Ignatieff’s support of the Iraq War. Unfortunately for him, the American involvement in Iraq has grown less popular, and has become a crucial litmus test for the left.

And, if Ignatieff is in trouble in Canada on this basis, that suggests that Hillary Clinton is in very big trouble in the US.

If Bob Rae can establish himself as the leading alternative to Ignatieff, he indeed has a very good chance.

By electing Rae, the Liberals would be ceding more of the centre ground to the Conservatives, if the Tories chose to take it. But that may not matter, in Canadian politics. There is an old saw, which seems to usually hold true: when the Liberals run to the right of the Conservatives, they lose. The Liberals can run to the left and hope to pull enough votes away from the NDP to take power; if they run to the right, what they gain from the Conservatives tends to be lost to the NDP on the other wing.

Rae, with his experience and stage presence, is arguably the strongest candidate the Liberals can put forward for the very next election. If they think they can win, they probably should go with him. And he may be more attractive as a second choice to other candidates and their supporters because, if he fails, he looks more like a short-term leader. In the meantime, some of the other candidates can take the opportunity to build up their Canadian federal political credentials for a later run: Ignatieff, Dryden (needs to work on that French), Kennedy, Brison, Bennett.

I, for one, though, will be disappointed if Ignatieff does not win—strictly for the possible rise in the intellectual level of political debate.