Liberal Race Neck and Neck--But Ignatieff is a Lap Ahead

A poll on the liberal leadership earlier this week made headlines. The news hook was that the Liberal leadership race was tighter than supposed: a virtual tie among Ignatieff, Dion, Brison, Rae, and Kennedy.

This is misleading. Most importantly, this was a poll of the general public, not of those who will choose the Liberal leader. Secondly, given the scant interest the race has stirred so far, the results probably show little more than name recognition.

Who does elect the Liberal leader? Mostly, Liberal party activists; with some votes reserved for sitting Liberal members.

We already know something of the support among sitting members: based on public declarations to date, the race looks like this:

Ignatieff: 42 members, house and senate.
Brison: 12 members.
Dion: 10 members.
Rae: 10 members.

Not a tight race. If the old rules were followed, by which the leader was chosen by the members of parliament in caucus, Ignatieff would be home free. As it is, the close race among his rivals increases his chances, by making it more difficult for opposition to coalesce around a single alternative candidate.

We will pretty well know the rest of the story on the September 29 weekend. The rest of the delegates will be chosen on that date. They will generally be pledged to one candidate or another on the first ballot. It is possible the race will be over then.

Most of the delegates come from the Liberal riding associations across the country: 14 from each riding. In addition, 55 youth clubs get to send 4 delegates each; 82 women’s commissions and 7 seniors clubs also send 1 delegate each, and aboriginal groups send 245 delegates.

Interestingly, this is nothing close to one-person-one-vote. Instead, certain groups—youth, women, aboriginals, seniors—are privileged in the process. A middle-aged white man gets one vote, for 14 delegates. A middle-aged white woman can get two votes, for 15 delegates. A middle-aged aboriginal woman can get three votes, for 260 delegates. A young aboriginal woman gets four votes, for 264 delegates.

But that is entirely the business of the Liberal Party. Even the riding voting is not one-person-one-vote, because Liberals in some parts of the country are rather less numerous than in others. A rural Alberta Liberal is likely to get a bigger say in the selection of his or her riding’s 14 delegates than a Toronto Liberal.The point is, a poll of the general public is almost completely irrelevant to the Liberal race.