The Book!

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Nevada





I have just about lost interest now in the US presidential race. Nevada has made both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump look close to inevitable. It is too depressing. To think: the Republicans at least produced the best field in a generation, and it boils down to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? After Obama, I'm not sure the US can survive this with its preeminence intact.

For the Dems, South Carolina will tell the tale. But Nevada was a better shot for Bernie than South Carolina; the SC vote is heavily black and the black vote prefers Clinton. It is not fair; Sanders spent his youth fighting for civil rights, and Clinton came late to the game. The problem is apparently that blacks do not identify with Sanders culturally. He is too white. But Clinton has the advantage of a large black vote throughout the SEC primary to come as well. By there time that it over, Sanders may have lost all momentum.

As for the Republicans, the big problem is that Trump's vote has not just grown, it is now bigger than the next two candidates, Rubio and Cruz, combined. If this holds, it suggests he cannot be overtaken even in a two-man race. And Rubio and Cruz are so close in their vote that it is hard to see either dropping out. If you add Carson's and Kasich's vote to either Rubio or Cruz, it would hardly make a difference.

I can only hope that Nevada is some odd anomaly, like a rogue poll.


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