Super Twos-day

The big news from the primaries last night is Sanders's win in Michigan. This, I read, is one of the biggest polling errors in history. It suggests Sanders may still beat Clinton. She racks up huge majorities among blacks in the South, but Sanders has now demonstrated an ability to attract the votes of northern blacks.

Next most important news is the lousy showing of Marco Rubio. I really like Rubio, but then, I really liked Jeb Bush. Apparently, being fingered as the establishment candidate is death in this election cycles. It also seems clear that Rubio's no-holds-barred attacks on Trump backfired on him. Totally unfair. Trump started it, and Trump gets away with it. He toook down Trump, and Cruz gets the benefit. Kasich also underwhelmed, coming in behind Cruz in Michigan. Whether they stay in or drop out, the race is resolving itself into a two-man contest, Trump vs. Cruz. And Cruz is staying within striking distance in the delegate count. If I were Rubio or Kasich, I would stay in until their home states vote, if only for influence at what may be a contested convention. In the days when these things were the standard, “favourite sons” were also numerous. State delegations would often go pledged to a favourite son, the local governor or a senator, for the first ballot, preserving their bargaining position for later ballots. Rubio or Kasich could bargain for the VP slot, or for their favoured issues in the party platform.

Hawaii results still to come at time of writing.

Trump's Fade: Super Saturday

Super Saturday is further proof that Trump has reached and passed his high water mark. He underperformed the recent polls by quite a bit. Folks are saying Rubio did remarkably badly and probably should drop out. I'm not so sure. Trump says he wants hum to drop out. That is a good clue that he should not. He is naturally the biggest challenge to Trump in his home state of Florida. But there are also a bunch of big northern states coming up that are winner-take-all. These do not look like good prospects for Cruz. They might be more fertile ground for Rubio. Without Rubio in, they are likely to go to Trump.

It seems to me that Rubio's strong attacks on Trump badly hurt Trump, but also hurt Rubio. Cruz was the beneficiary. He split the four states ith Trump 50/50, but he barely lost Louisiana and Kentucky, while he crushed Trump in Kansas and won handily in Maine, a state that did not look like Cruz country. And these states award their delegates proportionately.

In any case, I think it's all downhill from here for Trump.

Eleventh Republican Debate

The latest Republican debate was as exciting as the last one. This time it was Cruz's chance to shine. Rubio still got off the bet line of the night, worrying about Trump breaking into yoga because he was so flexible. It was also extempore, not a pre-planned sound bite. Rubio is obviously a bright guy with a really good sense of humour. He was not nearly as aggressive as last time—no doubt his own polls tell him it is not helping him for all it may hurt Trump. This gave Cruz the chance to take centre stage. He adopted a prosecutorial manner, which may work better for him.

Kasich also did well. He reversed his disturbing answer on religious freedom from last debate. Someone must have sat him down and pointed out what was really at stake. Still, that he seems to have been ill-informed on the issue suggests that he is not the serious Christian he says he is.

I cannot imagine how anyone continues to support Trump. He was awful. His insults, his avoidance of positions and his waffling were too obvious, and to clearly pointed to by the other candidates and the moderators. He was playing the voters for suckers, and surely the voters in general should see this by now. I think it may still take time, maybe two weeks, for it all to sink in, but I suspect this dragon is finally slain.

Tenth Republican Debate

The winner of the debate

Do I really have anything usefu lto say about the latest Republican debate? Maybe not. Rubio's win was so clear everyone agrees on it. It has finally been posted on YouTube, and I have finally had a chance to see it. I get CNN, but the original debate wsas in the early hours of the morning local time. It was the most fun to watch of any debate I have ever seen. It may be a classic in future.

Rubio is a good looking, yourng guy who smiles a lot. He looks like a puppy who wants to be loved; that night he put away any concerns that he might not be tough enough for president. Trump is essentially a clown, and the best weapon against him is ridicule. Rubio has hit upon this, and his blows were telling. Trump looked like a blustering fool.

Why has nobody done this before? Why does it happen only now, at the eleventh hour? My guess is that everyone was afraid of Trump's very personal insults.

Cruz had the second-best night, and landed a number of good blows on Trump as well. It will not do him any good, though, probably, because Rubio was better. Rubio looked as if he were having fun. Normally, I would consider his blows too low, too personal, but it is a matter of fighting fire with fire. Trump gets personal immediately. Trump was repetitious, had few real answers, and some of his positions looked silly. Rubio slaughtered him on Obamacare; Cruz slaughtered him on not releasing his tax returns. Rubio was great in accusing Trump of repeating himself; it defused a criticism of himself while skewering Trump, who really does repeat himself constantly, unlike Rubio, and Trump made himself look a stiff by apparently not getting the joke. It was masterful and memorable. Trump's responses were, as usual, but more often since he was under such strong attack, mostly just to insult anyone who challenged him. It was so transparent, it was funny. I cannot imagine why anyone has supported Trump all along, but surely now that he has been revealed as the unserious candidate he is, it will no longer be cool to admit you support or ever supported Trump. It suggests you are a sucker. I really cannot see why his support does not collapse now. But I've said that before, and been wrong.

Points to Rubio for knowing, and saying, that South Korea at least is shouldering the burden of its own defense, and not freeloading on the US.

Kasich was pushing hard, but the polls make him an irrelevancy. I did not get him on keeping health costs down by paying more for low prices. Seems like a simple contradiction in terms. Nobody called him on it; it is in nobody's interest to waste time arguing with Kasich, because he is not going anywhere. He also lost me on religious liberty, insisting that religious institutions have the right to freedom of conscience. He was too careful to always say religious institutions. By inference, it appears that he does not believe individuals have the same right in their daily lives. This implies a radical diminution of conscience rights. He also ignored the fact that requiring business proprietors to sell to anyone who asks for their services or goods is a violation of freedom of association. And he falsifies the issue. Nobody is refusing to serve gays; the problem is catering gay weddings.

The moderators seemed pretty bad, but to be fair, they had a very tough job. The candidates were talking over each other, insulting one another and thereby requiring an unscheduled response, and speaking out of turn. Wolf Blitzer should be shot for shutting down Ted Cruz twice. Dana Bash also talked over Rubio's best line, about Trump's repetitions, but Rubio wisely was too impolite to listen. It would have been a shame if the line had been lost or not heard, for the sake of both history and entertainment value. The Hispanic moderator, Maria Arraras, was an embarrassment; all her questions were about specifically Hispanic concerns. First, they were a kind of ideological, self-imposed ghetto; they implied that Hispanics were not fully Americans, but a special interest group. Second, thry solicited pandering; this was demeaning. Third, the questions were of little interest to the audience at large. She even, inanely, called for a wall along the Canadian border, in the name of fairness, if a wall was going to be built along the Mexican one. This deserves ridicule.

Nevada

I have just about lost interest now in the US presidential race. Nevada has made both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump look close to inevitable. It is too depressing. To think: the Republicans at least produced the best field in a generation, and it boils down to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? After Obama, I'm not sure the US can survive this with its preeminence intact.

For the Dems, South Carolina will tell the tale. But Nevada was a better shot for Bernie than South Carolina; the SC vote is heavily black and the black vote prefers Clinton. It is not fair; Sanders spent his youth fighting for civil rights, and Clinton came late to the game. The problem is apparently that blacks do not identify with Sanders culturally. He is too white. But Clinton has the advantage of a large black vote throughout the SEC primary to come as well. By there time that it over, Sanders may have lost all momentum.

As for the Republicans, the big problem is that Trump's vote has not just grown, it is now bigger than the next two candidates, Rubio and Cruz, combined. If this holds, it suggests he cannot be overtaken even in a two-man race. And Rubio and Cruz are so close in their vote that it is hard to see either dropping out. If you add Carson's and Kasich's vote to either Rubio or Cruz, it would hardly make a difference.

I can only hope that Nevada is some odd anomaly, like a rogue poll.

South Carolina

Okay, Trump won South Carolina, As some TV talking head has said, nobody has eveer won both New Hampshire and South Carolina without going on to win the nomination. But this is not an ordinary year, and Trump is not an ordinary candidate. His percentage of the vote was 32.5. In New Hampshire, it was 35.3 %. I think Trump has a ceiling, and his support may stay relatively steady, but it is not growing. Too many people in the Republican Party would never vote for him. One third of the vote it enough for a big win in a seventeen-prson race. If it gets down to two or three candidates, it is not.

It is crucially important that Rubio apparently came in second, and not Ted Cruz. Rubio has he greater growth potential, and so is a greater threat to Trump. Bush has dropped out; the bulk of his support will probably go to Rubio. By itself, it will not be enough to pass Trump, but it should maintain Rubio's image as the candidate with momentum,

Trump scoffed at the idea that he might lose to a consolidation of the anti-Trup voate in his victory speech. He argues that a portion of the vote from those who drop out will go to him as well. A portion, sure, but not enough to make the diffrence between 33 and 50 percent. He is overlooking the fact that he has "high negatives," that a high proportion of those not already backing Trump say they would never bakc Trump. It is also always true that the frot-runner naturally ha less growth potential-those who like him are largely already backing him.

This primary seems to be especially bad news for Cruz. It sets up Rubio instead of Cruz as the obvious alternative to Trump. Moreover, South Carolina is a very conservative state full of evengelicals. It should be prime Cruz terroitory. If he cannot beat the more moderate Rubio here, where can her? I think Cruz has suffered from the perception that he is not a nice guy.

New S.C. polls

It looks as though the last Republican debate has redeemed Rubio and erased concerns about his disastrous performance in the debate just before it. This is bad news for Donald Trump, and good news for the Republican party. Non-Trump and non-Cruz support may yet consolidate now behind Rubio, and it may not be too late for this. If the polls are right, Bush and Carson will probably drop out after South Carolina. 

Told Ya So

The first legitimate poll coming out after the recent US Republican candidates' debate seems to confirm my own impressions regarding winners and losers. Carly Fiorina is the big winner, and now ties Trump. Rand Paul is the big loser, Jeb Bush also down significantly.

The Dream Republican Ticket

As of now, what looks like the best Republican ticket?

Rubio-Kasich or Kasich- Rubio.

1. They should nail down their own states in a close race—probably the two most Important swing states.
2. They balance the ticket geographically, north-south.
3. They balance the ticket ideologically: moderate (Kasich) and conservative (Rubio). They would stand a good chance of both bringing out the base and attracting some independents.
4. They balance the ticket in terms of attractive youthful energy (Rubio) and experience plus gravitas (Kasich).
5. They balance the ticket in terms of legislative (Rubio) and executive (Kasich) experience.
6. Both are good communicators.
7. This ticket should be acceptable to Hispanic voters.
8. They both feel like fresh faces.
9. Both seem to have high likability.
10. Neither of them is Donald Trump.

Told Ya So!

Michael Dukakis consults with his 2016 presidential campaign exploratory committee.

A year and a half ago, TIME magazine featured Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton as the presumptive nominees of their two parties for the 2016 presidential stakes. They were way ahead of all other possible candidates in the polls. I said then, in this blog, that neither would be their party’s nominee.

Looks more and more as though I was right. I said a suspicion of sleaze would bring down Christie. Then “bridgegate” knocked him back into the pack. Even though it seems he was not involved, and the matter was trivial, it cemented an image to which I suspected he was already vulnerable. Just for coming from New Jersey and from the politics of that area.

I said Hillary was too boring and too familiar to satisfy Democrats. I said a dark horse would take it.

Welcome, Bernie Sanders.

Now Clinton’s poll numbers are sinking. Already, she trails Sanders in New Hampshire. Party stalwarts are scrambling for an alternative establishment pick—someone more electable than a declared socialist. Rumours focus on Joe Biden entering the race, or Al Gore, or John Kerry, or Jerry Brown.

They may get in—I doubt they will—but they’re not going to win the nomination.

They have the same main disadvantage that Hillary does. They’re too familiar. Democrats crave the novel.

If Sanders loses now, it will be to another dark horse.