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Saturday, March 05, 2016

Trump's Fade: Super Saturday






Super Saturday is further proof that Trump has reached and passed his high water mark. He underperformed the recent polls by quite a bit. Folks are saying Rubio did remarkably badly and probably should drop out. I'm not so sure. Trump says he wants hum to drop out. That is a good clue that he should not. He is naturally the biggest challenge to Trump in his home state of Florida. But there are also a bunch of big northern states coming up that are winner-take-all. These do not look like good prospects for Cruz. They might be more fertile ground for Rubio. Without Rubio in, they are likely to go to Trump.

It seems to me that Rubio's strong attacks on Trump badly hurt Trump, but also hurt Rubio. Cruz was the beneficiary. He split the four states ith Trump 50/50, but he barely lost Louisiana and Kentucky, while he crushed Trump in Kansas and won handily in Maine, a state that did not look like Cruz country. And these states award their delegates proportionately.

In any case, I think it's all downhill from here for Trump.


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