Super Twos-day

The big news from the primaries last night is Sanders's win in Michigan. This, I read, is one of the biggest polling errors in history. It suggests Sanders may still beat Clinton. She racks up huge majorities among blacks in the South, but Sanders has now demonstrated an ability to attract the votes of northern blacks.

Next most important news is the lousy showing of Marco Rubio. I really like Rubio, but then, I really liked Jeb Bush. Apparently, being fingered as the establishment candidate is death in this election cycles. It also seems clear that Rubio's no-holds-barred attacks on Trump backfired on him. Totally unfair. Trump started it, and Trump gets away with it. He toook down Trump, and Cruz gets the benefit. Kasich also underwhelmed, coming in behind Cruz in Michigan. Whether they stay in or drop out, the race is resolving itself into a two-man contest, Trump vs. Cruz. And Cruz is staying within striking distance in the delegate count. If I were Rubio or Kasich, I would stay in until their home states vote, if only for influence at what may be a contested convention. In the days when these things were the standard, “favourite sons” were also numerous. State delegations would often go pledged to a favourite son, the local governor or a senator, for the first ballot, preserving their bargaining position for later ballots. Rubio or Kasich could bargain for the VP slot, or for their favoured issues in the party platform.

Hawaii results still to come at time of writing.

Trump on Immigration

Hair today, gone tomorrow?

I had been on the point of writing a blog entry on Donald Trump’s candidacy being essentially based on his entertainment value, when he went and published as serious, detailed policy proposal. Agree with it or not, his newly revealed immigration policy is not clownish. Trump’s own campaign, at least, apparently believes the root of Trump’s popularity is not his entertainment value, but a popular backlash against immigration.

This may be so. Similar sentiments have proven politically powerful recently in Europe. This is also reminiscent of the Reform Party electoral rebellion in Canada, back in the 1990s.

It is what happens when the political elite leaves the public without an option on an issue they perceive as important. An outsider sees an opening, exploits the free electoral market, and surges into prominence.

In the Canadian example, all the federal political parties closed ranks to deny the public the chance to oppose the Meech Lake Agreement. At the same time, all supported multiculturalism and high levels of immigration. A lot of Canadians felt themselves and their concerns not listened to. The result: Reform came from nowhere to become the official opposition.

Ou sont les fauves d'autrefois?

In Europe, the issue has been immigration combined with the loss of national sovereignty to the EU. With some, mainly British, exceptions, polite society for many years has unanimously supported both, and seen opposition as beyond the pale. To oppose immigration or EU integration smelt like crypto-Fascism. The Economist regularly, and without fear of contradiction, referred to Jean-Marie LePen as a “thug.” Until LePen demonstrated his popularity by making the final round of the French presidential vote. Then he miraculously metamorphosed, in the editorial columns of The Economist, into “that wily ex-paratrooper.” Nigel Farage has made a similar impact more recently in Britain.

So Trump may be holding a hand worthy of his name. It is not true to say that discussing illegal immigration has been a shibboleth in the US; but the Republican causus in Congress, despite all saying they are against it, have been unwilling to pass legislation. Voters may well suspect a con.

Nobody here but us wily ex-paratroopers.

I do not tend to agree with Trump on immigration. I have scruples about the rights of man, including freedom of movement. However, I also think the attacks on his plan that have immediately begun are over the top.

The Washington Post says it is unthinkable to no longer recognize citizenship by birth, to have twelve million residents who are not, and will never be, citizens. It would be too socially disruptive.

Tell that to Germany, or Japan, who have long had large guest worker populations, but do not recognize citizenship by birth. Tell that to Qatar or the UAE, where the majority of residents are not citizens. Life does seem to go on.

The WaPo also argues that the logistics of finding and deporting all the illegal residents would be hopelessly expensive. But Trump has already answered that objection: he points out that the costs of policing and social services caused by the presence of those illegals are also high.

The Post goes on to say that the mass deportation of twelve million would mean “staggering economic and social havoc.”

Not necessarily. In the spirit of the platform of the Alliance for Canadian Unity Party, I have a suggestion. The problem is undocumented foreign workers taking the jobs of unemployed lower class Americans, right? Yet businesses say they need the workers, or face financial ruin, because Americans will not take the jobs. Hence the idea of economic havoc.

Fair enough. Let the unemployed Americans themselves do the policing. If any American citizen finds an illegal worker performing a job they would like to have, they have the right to turn him in, have him or her deported, and get the job themselves as a reward. If they decline the offer, the illegal immigrant stays.

This would allow illegals to continue to take “the jobs Americans do not want to do,” if and when this is the case. It would allow Americans to protect their jobs, if this is the real issue.

Would there be many takers?

Why not find out?

American President

Bernie Sanders on the original Hollywood Squares.

I am as unhappy as anyone with the format of this evening's US Republican debate: with, that is, the exclusion of seven viable candidates. This presumably serves the interests of Fox News Network, or perhaps those of the Republican Party, who want to winnow the field quickly. It does not serve the voters, or American democracy.

Polls change like the weather; standing in recent polls is not a valid indicator of who is a viable candidate. Especially so early in the race, when few are paying much attention yet, and much that the polls measure is mere name recognition. Polls come with a margin of error, and all of those excluded are excluded for polling differences within that margin of error. Not only does this make the selection arbitrary; it promotes an unscientific attitude towards polls. In any case, the thing is circular: if you are not already sufficiently popular, the format prevents you from becoming popular. You might as well take the current poll leader, and declare him the nominee; as if the entire campaigning process serves no purpose.

And look at who is being excluded. Rick Perry, the longest serving governor ever of the second largest state. George Pataki, the man who defeated Mario Cuomo to become three-term governor of New York, a position once held by Nelson Rockefeller, Al Smith, and both Teddy and Franklin Roosevelt. Bobby Jindal, whose name has been widely mentioned for both president and vice president for over eight years. Carly Fiorina, who, whatever might be said about her lack of political background, has been probably the most articulate spokesperson for the party thus far in the campaign. Rick Santorum, runner-up in the last go-round. Lindsey Graham, a three-term senator from an early primary state, a foreign policy expert in a cycle in which US foreign policy seems to be in ruins. And some guy named Jim Gilmore, only a former governor of Virginia. Just like Thomas Jefferson, Patrick Henry, and James Monroe.

I understand the problem with time constraints. Still, Fox is already allocating time for everyone: the top ten at nine, the bottom seven at five pm. They apparently just don't want to waste prime time on the lesser lights. Okay, so why not just start the whole thing at nine, give the candidates the chance to choose when they will field their first question based on their initial poll numbers, and let the whole thing run later into the night?

I have also heard the objection that that many candidates will not fit comfortably into one camera angle. I cannot believe this is important to anyone, but if it is, the matter is solved, someone has suggested, by setting them up in two dimensions, as in Hollywood Squares.

But there is an even better option. Fox is seeing a problem where they should see an opportunity. What is hotter than reality television? Ask Donald Trump. What could be more profitable than a reality show in which the participants are largely already celebrities, and downright eager to appear for free?

So make a series out of it. Have the candidates compete in groups of four or five, on the same weeknight over successive weeks. After each debate, let a panel of pundits pronounce, then have the audience vote for the winner electronically, as they do on American Idol. Then host a blockbuster final.

Rinse and repeat.

Fiorina

IF Hillary Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, then, whoever gets the Republican nomination, the case for Carly Fiorina as running mate becomes quite strong. She is positioning herself as tbe anti-Hillary, and could pull the guilty-liberal sting of voting against a woman. She is also showing herself to be a fighter and a good speaker, two highly valued elements in a VP candidate. VP nominees  are often called upon to brawl so that the top of the ticket can take the high road.

Smart campaign.