The Book!

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

New Hamphire Results





The New Hampshire primary could not have gone much better for Donald Trump. He won outright, of course, and won big, more than doubling the votes of his closest rival. More importantly, the primary let no figure to coalesce around for an anybody but Trump movement. Rubio, the great hope, obviously suffered greatly from his terrible debate performance. He needed and was poised or a strong second. Instead he slipped to fifth, and irrelevance. In second instead was John Chickasaw. A good candidate, but with no organization nor appeal in the Southern states about to go next. By the time Super Tuesday is over, hiss good showing here will probably be a distant memory.

Worse, the possible rivals to Trump are all bunched closely together in the results. So they may all stay in. Even if some drop out, there is no one clear destination for their votes. It looks like a two-person race is shaping up, Trump versus Cruz, and too many people do not like Cruz.

On top of that, Trump actually out-performed the last pre-primary polls, making him the winner in media terms as well. Other than the fade of Rubio, there is no bigger story,


Trump is now the odds-on favourite or the Republican nomination. Before the debate, I would have said Rubio. Sanders, of course, remains the best bet for the Democrats. Hillary's campaign will now perhaps melt down, There are rumours...


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