The Book!

Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Iowa Caucuses


Republican nominee 2016?


The big loser in Iowa was Donald Trump. I frankly expect his campaign now to fade into irrelevancy.His only selling point was that he was a winner, and now he has lost. 

The big winner is Marco Rubio. The name of the game in Iowa is exceeding expectations. He has most exceeded expectations. On top of that, he has pulled away from the pack in good time to allow the establishment to coalesce arooud him. Expect lots of endorsements and new money to come now to his campaign.

On the Democratic side, Clinton could not win. As the prohibitive front-runner, there is no news value in her winning. So even though she won, even though late polls showed he might. win, the story becomes "Sanders nearly ties Clinton." 


Now to New Hampshire. I expect Trump's current lead in the polls to fade, I expect Rubio to leapfrog Cruz, so that the story even if he does not win the primary will again be Rubio. Other establishment candidates will probably drop out after N.H., and Rubio, who has the biggest growth potential, will probably take the nomination. Sanders should win the Democratic primary handily. Sanders and Rubio will meet in November.


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