Hydroxychloraquine Hoax

This is pretty incredible. Science says the paper published in Lancet that caused the WHO to end all experimentation on hydroxychloraquine and discourage its use seems to have been bogus.

A disaster for the reputation of the Lancet, a further blow, if one were needed, to the credibility of the WHO, and more evidence that private interests are determined to discredit hydroxychloraquine for the sake of their profits, possibly at the cost of many deaths.

And more evidence that our current ruling classes are hopelessly corrupt?

Remember Hydroxychloraquine?

A Twitter thread comparing states in the US based on how liberal they are in allowing the use of hydroxychloraquine and CIVID-19 recovery rates. It does make it look as though the drug has a significant benefit.

The Darkest Hour Is Just Before Dawn

Scott Adams, the genius behind Dilbert, has pretty much given up hope on hydroxychloraquine. We’re all going to get the virus, he figures, and all we can do is take our chances.

Adams is a very smart guy, who also hears behind the scenes, he says, from a lot of other people. He says there has been more than enough time for the results of the first proper controlled studies in the US to have become apparent. Studies still have to be written up, but if the hydroxychloraquine combination worked decisively, it would by now be apparent. So if we have not heard anything, it must be that it does not work. 

Too bad, because up until a few days ago, Adams was quite hopeful about hydroxychloraquine, and was hinting at some very good news soon. Things he knew that the general public did not know yet.

I disagree with his current conclusion. I think Scott Adams is smart enough that he does not believe it either. I think if the studies so far had shown hydroxychloroquine did not work, we would also have likely heard by now. In fact, we would have been more likely to hear if it had not worked than if it had. We hear such things through the media, and the media have been out to discount it, to get at Trump, because he’s been speaking of it as promising. Any leak suggesting it did not work would therefore be prominently reported. Those involved in the studies would probably be approached by media, if they are doing their job, and coaxed to spill it if it did not work.

A leak suggesting it really did work would be much more likely to be buried. That would help Trump.

Even if it did work, and work well, there would be an incentive to bury this fact even for Trump and the administration.

Trump boasts that the US has 29 million doses of the hydroxychloroquine. No word on how much azithromycin. Twenty-nine million doses sounds like a lot. But according to the French study, five doses are needed to cure a typical case of coronavirus.

That’s enough to treat six million people, then. That still sounds like a lot.

But the word is that the treatment is only effective if given early, at the onset of symptoms. It cannot be held back for only the worst cases; to work, it must be given promptly to anyone with symptoms.

Now imagine it becomes publicly known that the hydroxychloroquine treatment is almost always effective, if given early.

There would be an immediate demand to end the lockdowns and get back to work. People are desperate. Even if the lockdowns were not immediately lifted, people would ignore them. Everyone would pour out onto the streets and form conga lines.

Experts estimate that, without the lockdown, 60% of the population will soon become infected. Roughly 200 million people in the US alone.

That means, in such a scenario, the US alone would need 200 million times five doses: a billion doses. Not 29 million.

And wait; there’s more. There are some reports that the drug is prophylactic. Take it regularly, and, as with malaria, you don’t get the illness, or the symptoms, in the first place. If that gets out, the demand will not be for five doses for 60% of the population, but five doses a month for 100% of the population, indefinitely.

In the meantime, you need to assure a secure supply for first-line medical workers, and for those already taking the drug for lupus and other ailments.

So if it works very well, there is a huge incentive to keep this quiet.

Notice that just about the same situation was behind the early assurances that masks were ineffective. Yes, they were always effective, but there were not enough of them, and they were needed for medical personnel.

But if hydroxychloroquine is effective, and this is now well-established, it explains why Trump feels it is now possible to start cautiously opening things up. Cautiously, and without revealing how effective the treatment is, so that numbers infected do not outstrip supplies.

I suspect that Adams, if he indeed has lots of contacts, has been gotten to and had this explained to him. He has been asked to dampen expectations so that it all works.

Trudeau had just announced that Canada would need to remain in lockdown until late summer, and Duterte in the Philippines just said the same. This, presumably, is the difference between knowing about and having hydroxychloroquine, and not having it. Without it, this is what the medical models suggest is necessary.

I expect that, behind the scenes, the US is doing what is necessary to increase their supply. Whether that includes invading Venezuela or not.

At the same time, there are early promising reports about another drug, remdesivir. The stock market was up yesterday on the news. This one was leaked. Remdesivir is a lot more expensive than hydroxychloroquine, but it seems to be effective with the most extreme cases, exactly those with which hydroxychloroquine is reportedly ineffective. For this reason, it can be safely announced even if available only in small quantities.

The two together might cover the zone.

Opening the Chinese Box

I tend to beat the drum for the hydroxychloroquine treatment. Perhaps this is one more example of denial: I want it to be true.

I think it is based in part on my assumption that this plague is sent by God—almost a necessary assumption for a monotheist. That means God has a plan, and it seems to me that a “miracle cure” would make sense in terms of such a divine plan.

But Scott Adams has suggested another bit of evidence that might be significant. Scott Adams is a really smart guy, always worth watching on YouTube. He says he got the idea from Tucker Carlson, another really smart guy, on Fox News.

Seeing the devastating outbreaks in new epicentres in Iran, Italy, Spain, New York, over the past months, Adams asks, why was there never a similar new epicentre in China on the scale of Wuhan, or these others? Why has the same pattern of spread not been seen within China as has been seen outside China? The virus hit Wuhan during the Chinese New Year, and people dispersed from Wuhan all over China. While there have been local outbreaks all over, there have been no new major centres of spread to rival Wuhan.

China has for some time even been sending out ridiculously low numbers for new cases and new deaths, numbers that suggest the virus is over. Today’s figures are 46 new cases, 3 new deaths, in all of China.

Most of us have simply scoffed at these figures—the Chinese government is lying, as we know they often do.

Yet, Adams suggests, if there really were continuing large numbers of hospital admissions and deaths, wouldn’t it leak out? We do hear rumours, but wouldn’t there be more solid evidence in this era of interconnectedness and social media?

Adams thinks the most plausible explanation is that the Chinese have, and have been aggressively deploying, a vaccine or cure.

If it is a vaccine, though, Adams speculates that it would also be hard to vaccinate large numbers of people without this becoming apparent to the outside world. Moreover, why would the Chinese keep this a secret? Aside from humanitarian concerns, if they did so, and it later leaked out, as it was bound to, it would be devastating to their international reputation that they did not share their knowledge.

If not a vaccine, by elimination, they have some treatment.

This would still probably mean the figures are cooked; people are still getting the virus. But it would mean that the treatment available is so effective that this is invisible to the outside world. They are perhaps just getting what looks like a bad cold, or the like. They are given the medicine, sent home for a few days. No spike in hospital beds, in ventilator use, surgical masks, or burials.

And also, quite possibly, a genuine reduction in the number of new cases. If some pill kills the virus in the body within a few days, that leaves far less chance for others to be infected. It also could mean that people are getting well as quickly as new people are getting sick, keeping down the number of active cases. As herd immunity increases, also slowing the virus.

Doesn’t the same objection apply here as to a vaccine? Isn’t China’s international reputation going to suffer if they are doing this secretly, and it comes out?

No: because they are not doing it secretly. They already told us they were doing this. We first learned about the possibilities of hydroxychloroquine from Chinese studies. In addition to this, China some time ago officially released internationally a report on what they found clinically worked and did not work. And they cited chloraquine in this study. They said they were using it, and it seemed to work.

They did so precisely to avoid the charge that they were holding anything back. Would they have bothered if they did not think they had valuable advice to give?

And this same logic also suggests that, if they have found a cure, it will be some substance mentioned in that public report.

And it must have been something already fairly readily available, like chloraquine, if China has already been able to deploy it widely.

China was better equipped to move quickly on such a cure than most, not just because they can skip testing and trials, not needing to fear any lawsuits or electoral repercussions, but also because they are a huge centre for drug manufacture.

The really good news is that the current Chinese figures for new deaths and new infections may actually be more or less real.