The US Midterms

 

The midterm election results down in the US were quite a shock. Not that they strayed so far from the polls; people were discounting polls. More that the logic of a first midterm in a president’s term almost always means major gains by the opposition party, plus the disastrous economic news and the growing signs of Biden’s senility. And John Fetterman. And growing signs that the public is no longer embracing the woke agenda. Regardless of polls, people were expecting a “red tsunami.”

Why didn’t it happen?

It seems to me the only plausible reason is Donald Trump. As unhappy as folks might have been with Biden and the Democrats, they did not want Trump back. So they did not want to vote for his candidates.

The overwhelming public urge seems to be to get back to the time before either Trump or Biden, or to get beyond it.

You might have expected this to cause a low turnout, as voters were unhappy with either alternative. Instead, it caused a high one: half the country rushed out to vote for anybody but the Biden Dems, and the other half to vote for anybody but Trump.

US Midterm Results

Flipping around Facebook for US midterm election coverage. CNN is ridiculous; it has become blatantly partisan, with no attempt at hiding it. They were loudly and early declaring it a historic sweep for the Democrats; even though the results were underwhelming in historical terms, for the opposition party in the first election after a new president is elected. The Democrats took the House handily, but the Republicans look as though they will expand their hold on the Senate.

This is pretty much the American system as it is supposed to be: power divided, so that no one gets to do much. The system is built for stalemate, keeping government from being activist. That's what “checks and balances” are about.

I am glad to see the moderate Democratic Senators whose votes on Kavanaugh were thought to be available, but who decided to vote on partisan lines, all losing their seats: Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill. While Manchin, the lone Democrat who voted to confirm, won handily. That's justice, and makes such a nasty confirmation lynching less likely again.

Folks are talking about the Democratic House issuing subpoenas and starting impeachment proceedings. If they are stupid, they will, and will guarantee Trump a second term. And there is every indication that they are that stupid. This is more of their Kavanaugh approach, using any means available, fair or foul, regardless of the cost to the country, for partisan purposes. It underlines the idea of the Dems as angry mob.

At the same time, the election is unlucky for the Democrats in another way: they won almost no new marquee statewide races. Which means no new potential presidential candidates to compete with Trump next cycle. Their bench was already looking old and weak. Ghosts were coming out of the wainscotting. Kerry versus Hillary Clinton versus Biden versus Sanders? Sounds like a 20-year reunion party at an old folks' home.

No doubt they will come up with someone: who was Bernie Sanders before he was Bernie Sanders? Who was Bill Clinton before he was Bill Clinton? He was known in his first run only as one of the “seven dwarfs.” The Dems like dark horses. But now there will be fewer possible dark horses. And, as the Conservatives in Canada have often demonstrated in taking out new Liberal leaders, nominating a horse of highly saturated hue is dangerous. Not clearly defined in the public mind, they can be defined by the opposition. Not thoroughly vetted by public scrutiny, new dirt may appear sometime in October.

Jeff Flake apparently as much as announced on air he was going to run against Trump on the Republican side. I doubt he has a meaningful constituency in the party; that'll only help Trump by getting the Republican primaries some coverage. People will at least pay attention long enough to see Flake crushed in Iowa and New Hampshire.