DeSantis Just Folded His Tent

 

And in a backhanded way endorsed Trump. He needed to go now, before Trump had it all sewn up, so he could get some credit for putting him over the top. 

Hard to believe Trump won't smoke Nikki Hailey in New Hampshire now. 

Hard to believe Hailey will want to hang on now to be humiliated in her home state. I expect her too to drop out once the NH results are in.

Trump will have his nomination secured now. But Biden may look shaky after New Hampshire.

A Path for DeSantis

 

 I see a path for Ron DeSantis to the Republican nomination. 

Donald Trump has begun attacking him. A day or two ago, in a speech, Trump referred to DeSantis as “DeSanctimonious.”

Trump is being roundly criticized for this by conservative commentators. First, because he was attacking a fellow Republican and conservative on the eve of an election. Second, because it was a lame insult. Not up to Trump’s standard.

I smell blood in the water.

The commentariat is implying that Trump is past it. They are implying also that he is disloyal. These are deadly criticisms if they stick.

The same people who like Trump like DeSantis. The same people who like DeSantis like Trump. I think this means that, whoever atttacks first, loses. They immediately become the bad guy.

Trump has already started firing.

Maybe all DeSantis needs to do is keep his powder dry, keep smiling, and refuse to attack Trump in kind, and he wins. He is showing respect for the old duffer; while implying he is no longer really relevant. In fact, the base for the two is so similar that, if DeSantis can hold his tongue for just a short time, Trump’s support may crumble and move over en masse.

People want to support Trump because they feel he got a raw deal in having only one term, and one term crippled by the “Russia hoax.” His advantage over DeSantis is this call on his followers’ sympathies and sense of loyalty. Without it, DeSantis looks like the better candidate. He is younger, and so contrasts better with the doddering Biden. Even if Biden does not run again, people will fear electing another dodderer. He lacks a lot of Trump’s baggage. After the turmoil of the Biden presidency, people will crave a sense of normalcy; not a return to the prior turmoil of the Trump presidency. It will not help to be reminded of Trump’s chippiness.

By going after DeSantis without being fired upon, Trump surrenders his moral claim to sympathy and loyalty. He is being unsympathetic and disloyal himself.

There will probably be other candidates for the nomination. They will probably do enough to keep Trump’s feet to the fire. 

DeSantis’s best play is to stay above the fray and look presidential. It even looks then like an easy win.

The Republican Stakes for 2024

 

The Republicans have a problem for 2024: two obvious candidates. Trump gives every sign of intending to run again, and many will feel he deserves the chance. But many also worry that he is too old or too divisive, and want to rally around Ron DeSantis.

It would be best for the party if the two could make some deal. Yet a backroom deal is anathema to a populist movement. Ideally, they both go after the nomination, but obeying Reagan’s eleventh commandment: speak no ill of a fellow Republican. The party members and the public could decide. Yet the brand would not be tarnished. A contested nomination increases public interest, and, should one stumble, the other would be available. Once the matter is decided, as reward for sticking to the bargain, the loser would be chosen for the VP position. Either ticket would be awesome.

The problem is, this works better for DeSantis than Trump. For Trump, VP would probably still feel like a comedown. Rather than taking the VP position for himself, the deal might be that it goes to one of his children. 

Trump is also better with the bare knuckles than DeSantis is likely to be; because he is better than anyone. That, ironically, makes him a perfect VP candidate. But it means that a deal to be gentlemanly costs him more than it does DeSantis.