What to Do about Putin

Language map of the Ukraine.

The US and EU probably could stop Putin now if they have the will. But if they do not, he may become much harder to stop later.

Recall that in the days of the Arab Spring, and following the last Russian presidential election, there were also huge street protests in Moscow. Putin’s rule was and remains shaky. This is one reason why he is doing what he is doing in the Ukraine. If he keeps pulling off impressive coups for Russia’s national prestige, and defeats of the Western powers, he holds on to and solidifies power. On the other hand, at this relatively early stage, one sharp setback could finish him. He is gambling for high stakes.

NATO--current membership.

If NATO were to call his bluff by immediately admitting Ukraine and Georgia to the alliance, it would probably be enough. At worst, it would mean a war with Russia that NATO, at this point, should be able to win.

The Secret History of Crimea

The Jewish Khazar Empire

As the Ukraine spirals further into chaos, and the Mideast crises drag on without sign of resolution, it is interesting to ponder what might have been.

In the years just after World War II, Molotov was largely in control of the Soviet Union, and the expected successor to Stalin. He had a plan, ultimately vetoed by Stalin, to make the Crimea a Jewish homeland.

There was a lot of sense to the idea. Unlike Palestine, the Crimea had recently been depopulated. Stalin had deported the Crimean Tatars for collaboration with the Germans. So the land was up for grabs. Moreover, it had a history of Jewishness. The local Jewish population was significant, and it had been part of the Medieval Jewish kingdom of the Khazars. If Arthur Koestler is right, modern Askenazi Jews are actually mostly Khazar by blood.

Molotov's wife was Jewish

The Zionists, for their part, were not terribly picky at this point as to where their homeland was to be, so long as they were given one.

Had the plan gone through, we might have avoided most or all of the ongoing strife in the Middle East, and certainly several wars. We might also have avoided the recent troubles over Crimea. From the standpoint of the Jews, the Crimea is more defensible over the long term than Palestine, and more fertile. Moreover, it is European, as were most of the Jews who colonized Israel. It would have looked far less like the last colony of imperial Europe.

The Gathering Storm?

What does this tell you?

I fear this piece by Michael Totten might be a case of whistling past the graveyard. Even though he admits that Putin is free to “slice and dice” the Ukraine if he wishes.

It rings false to me that Putin would be held back from invading the Ukraine because it would take him half a million men to “invade and occupy it.” After all, the Soviet Union previously controlled Ukraine, as did Imperial Russia before it, and it certainly did not cost them a half-million troops. Of course Putin is not going to invade Poland, at least not for the foreseeable future. He can't get to it, unless he invades and occupies either the Ukraine or Belarus first. But that's a bit of a red herring. Isn't it alarming enough if he takes the Ukraine and Belarus?

Totten argues that Putin does not want to take eastern Ukraine, because it would cost him his ability to influence the rest of the Ukraine. This seems tautological: if the rest of the Ukraine accepts this logic, he has already lost his ability to influence them. So he must be ready to take eastern Ukraine if his bluff is called. Moreover, the same logic ought to have prevented Hitler from taking the Sudetenland—and it obviously did not. Ukraine is poor, so he should not want it? By that logic, Russia would never have built its Czarist empire; nor would the rest of the European powers have built theirs. Nor, for that matter, would the US be in Puerto Rico. It rests on the assumption that Putin, if in possession of the Ukraine or parts of it, would feel honour bound to provide them with a standard of living comparable to that of the rest of the Russian Federation. Why would he?

Only months ago, I was scoffing at all the journalism referring to haunting similiarities between the present state of the world and that a hundred years ago at the advent of the First World War. The similarities seemed to me tenuous; it was just a ploy to sell books or articles commemorating the anniversary.

But now, suddenly, the world looks very much like the world on the advent of the Second, not the First, World War.

The First World is exhausted from the effort of winning the Cold War, 24 years ago, just as the First World was exhausted from the effort of winning the First World War, 21 years previously, in 1939. They do not want to believe it could happen all over again. As a result, they are in the mood for appeasement.

But the loser, not satisfied with the result, is naturally more eager to renew the struggle. It is hard for a people to accept a sudden demotion from world power to world's biggest loser. It is natural to demand a recount or a rematch. It is natural to believe that the first result must have been a mistake. Perhaps they were done in by a fifth column; perhaps they quit too soon. A rematch surely will not end the same way, and is very much worth risking.

The First World, overconfident from their win, is ready to concede to the loser at first. What harm can it really cause to let him back in to the Rhineland, or to bite off a piece or two of Georgia? After all, the division of Austria and Germany, or Russia and the Crimea, is artificial, isn't it? It's not as if the Germans are a realistic threat any more. Or the Russians.

But besides making the aggressor stronger with each of these concessions, it also makes him bolder.

Historically, Russia has been reasonably cautious about its expansionism. Putin may know when to stop, before he provokes a larger conflict.

Or at least, unlike Hitler, to wait until he has the forces to win that larger conflict. He is building the Russian Armed Forces at quite a good clip.

That's a calculation the First World will have to keep in mind.

And what does this have to do with the price of eggs in China?

Of course, China is a complicating factor. Just like Japan in the Second World War, they have a huge incentive to encourage Russia, to leave them with a freer hand to rise in the Far East. Iran could be a third partner, in the role of Italy, taking advantage of a larger conflict to expand its influence in the Middle East.

Given the situation, everyone in NATO should be boosting their defence budgets. Instead, in he face of a long recession, everyone is cutting them, just as before WWII, in the face of the Great Depression.

US military spending year over year.

Ukraine

Realistically, nobody is going to stop Russia from taking over Crimea, because nobody can.