Told Ya So!

Michael Dukakis consults with his 2016 presidential campaign exploratory committee.

A year and a half ago, TIME magazine featured Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton as the presumptive nominees of their two parties for the 2016 presidential stakes. They were way ahead of all other possible candidates in the polls. I said then, in this blog, that neither would be their party’s nominee.

Looks more and more as though I was right. I said a suspicion of sleaze would bring down Christie. Then “bridgegate” knocked him back into the pack. Even though it seems he was not involved, and the matter was trivial, it cemented an image to which I suspected he was already vulnerable. Just for coming from New Jersey and from the politics of that area.

I said Hillary was too boring and too familiar to satisfy Democrats. I said a dark horse would take it.

Welcome, Bernie Sanders.

Now Clinton’s poll numbers are sinking. Already, she trails Sanders in New Hampshire. Party stalwarts are scrambling for an alternative establishment pick—someone more electable than a declared socialist. Rumours focus on Joe Biden entering the race, or Al Gore, or John Kerry, or Jerry Brown.

They may get in—I doubt they will—but they’re not going to win the nomination.

They have the same main disadvantage that Hillary does. They’re too familiar. Democrats crave the novel.

If Sanders loses now, it will be to another dark horse.

Chris Christie: A Bridge Too Far?

You know you're washed up anyway, when TIME puts you on their cover.

The current Christie scandal may not be enough to kill his presidential hopes. But if there is one incident of this sort, there are likely to be others that could come out in the middle of a campaign. Rumour has it that Christie was dropped from consideration as Romney’s VP pick after a background check showed too many unopened closets. It would seem unwise of the Republican Party bosses to back such a candidate for the nomination.

I believe this opens up a large opportunity for Jeb Bush, should he want to get into the race. After Christie, he looks like the candidate most likely to attract the support of the party establishment. And he has the huge advantage of coming from Florida, an early primary and a swing state.

My prediction remains: Christie will not be the Republican nominee, and Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee.