Tory Win in St. Paul's

 

I awoke this morning to the shocking news that the Conservatives had won Toronto-St. Paul’s. I had gone to bed thinking the Liberals had it in the bag. This is not good news for the Conservative Party.

They probably did not want to win it. The top Liberals flooded in to the riding to campaign. Pierre Poilievre stayed out, campaigning in Quebec instead. On the day of the vote, top Conservatives were all telling the media they had no chance. They clearly expected to lose; and Poilievre might have stayed away so as not to be personally tarnished by the loss. But this was also likely to depress their vote, making it more probable that they would.

Why woud they want to win in St. Paul’s? Perhaps a morale boost for the troops. But it would not change the power balance in the House. The danger is that it will force Justin Trudeau to resign as Liberal leader. I think the Conservatives are right if they think Trudeau is their biggest asset. Canadians are generally desperate for a chance to vote against him. I know I am. He should not be allowed to retire without a truly humiliating defeat, to discourage future prime ministers from following in his autocratic footsteps.

A new leader is unlikely to help the Liberals electorally. But this is almost a secondary consideration to me, and perhaps also to the Tories. Psychologically and on principle, they want the chance to defeat Justin Trudeau.