A Kiwi Sprouts Wings

 

Jacinda Ardern is stepping down within a couple of weeks. 

I did not see this coming. I had just done a personal list of autocratic leaders I thought might fall in the current year. She was not on it.

Xi, Putin, Biden, Trudeau, Sunak, Khameini, Pope Francis, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Hafez Assad.

She deserved a spot for autocracy, but I did not think she was in danger.

She broke up during her resignation speech. That suggests, prima facie, she did not want to go. What pushed her? And she’s leaving surpisingly soon.

I understand she was down in the polls, but not by much. And she had almost a year until the next election. 

She said she lacked the energy for another term.

Maybe she lacked the energy to face a firestorm she knows is coming: about the vaccine, about the Covid response, about Chinese influence. Things are starting to come out, and to be noticed, about each of these. 

If this was enough to take her down, it may be enough to take down some others as well. Trudeau, Biden.

It may also be that she lacked energy because she had begun to lack conviction. As the positions of the left have become less and less tenable, it is not surprising if some leaders start to doubt the point of what they have been doing. That leads to a lack of energy.

I think change is in the wind. Give ten points for each leader who resigns or is forced out over the next year, from the above list, and start with ten points for Ardern. I expect at least three more to be gone by year end—40 points.