The Real Reason Russia Cannot Take Ukraine?

 

The lesson we might take from the current war in Ukraine is not that the Russian military is suprisingly incompetent, or the Ukrainians suprisingly competent, but that current technology favours the defense. This happens from time to time. The English longbow gave the defense the advantage over cavalry in the Hundred Years War. The machine gun gave the defense the advantage in the First World War, until overcome by the tank.

Currently, it seems that small, smart missiles and drones, some shoulder-carried, can take out more expensive tanks, ships, and planes. And even a relatively low-tech economy like Turkey can turn out effective drones.

Bad news for America projecting power. Good news for Taiwan should China want to invade.