Why Ukraine? Why Now?

 

Why is Russia just now amassing troops on its border with Ukraine? There seems to have been no precipitating event, no trigger. And why at this time of year? Normally nobody launches military operations in winter, in a land where winters are severe. Winter favours the defense.

Which raises the suspicion that something is going on behind the scenes. 

Why now? To begin with, because Biden looks weak, indecisive, muddled and unpopular. Not to mention, possibly bought. Pulling out of Afghanistan did not send a message of resolve. 

Both Russia and China may be calculating that at this moment, America’s response, divided, leaderless, and exhausted by COVID, will be weakened. This window of opportunity might not last. Moreover, Xi’s or Putin’s power might not last. China looks economically shaky. In internal factional fighting, Xi might need some dramatic act to save his presidency, due to be extended or ended at the fall party congress. Putin may feel he needs dramatic action to quell possible unrest after Kazakhistan.

So this may be planned as a one-two punch. First Russia goes in. This leaves the US with a Hobson’s choice. If they commit heavily to the Ukraine, they may strip themselves of resources needed later to help Taiwan. Fighting Russia and China simultaneously looks beyond America’s ability or resolve, in its present weakened state. 

Why right now, in winter? That looks like the most disturbing sign. If China is going to invade Taiwan, they have a narrow window, based on the monsoon seasons, to do it in May to July, or else in October. Monsoons famously defeated two planned Chinese invasions of Japan under the Qin Dynasty. 

May to July is obviously the better window. 

The Russian actions seem coordinated to fit this timetable.

And it all looks like the kind of deep strategy for which both Russia and China are traditionally known.