Predictions for 2022

 

Surrender, Dorothy!

A cautionary note: the prediction most likely to come true is a prediction that things will continue more or less as they are. Sudden change is the exception. Slow change is not generally perceptible year upon year. Any prediction other than this is most likely to be wrong.

But saying things will continue more or less as they are is hardly a prediction at all. You would stop reading at this point. 

So what sudden changes seem most likely?

I’d like to predict that the COVID pandemic will be over by the end of the year. Without interventions, the Spanish flu burned out after 2-3 years. Surely with our vaccines and all, we can do as well. Signs are that omicron is milder than previous strains, and is driving them out. I really expect it to be all over but the shouting by February. People will stop being scared of catching omicron. But I have been consistently over-optimistic

If the pandemic ends, I expect the world economy to come thundering back. A pandemic does not affect fundamentals. It is hard to see any lasting economic damage from the Spanish flu pandemic. I expect a season or more of optimism and growth.

The US has mid-term elections coming this fall. Everyone expects the Democrats to get trounced, and they only have a small majority in Congress now. A spanner in these works might be the end of the pandemic. Just as Trump was unfairly blamed for the pandemic, and FDR might have been unfairly credited with the end of the Depression, the Democrats might benefit from the resulting mood of general optimism. The economy should also boom in recovery, and Dems will be able to cite those stats as though they were their doing.

On balance, I’d say the odds favour the Republicans re-taking both houses. The opposition party usually gains ground in midterms, and the Dems only had a thin majority. And inflation looks like a real problem, that probably will not go away soon. But I don’t expect a blowout.

Things look unsettled in China. There are signs of a leadership struggle. The economy is getting hit hard, and Xi Jinping seems to be making it worse—a crazy move if he is not acting in mortal fear for his position. China is facing a heating shortage, an energy shortage, and a food shortage this winter. Not to mention a new outbreak of COVID. Xi might start a war out of desperation, in a bid to rally support behind him. But I think this is unlikely. It seems obvious that Xi himself does not want a war and is not preparing for one. To fight a war and lose would be suicide, and Chinese diplomacy is doing all the wrong things if it intends to win a war—provoking multiple possible enemies at once.

I’d say there’s a better chance that someone other than Xi will be in command by the end of the year. I think the party turned to him and threw him his extra powers because they were already in a desperate situation, and were looking for a man on a white horse. If visible improvement does not come within a reasonable time, if things instead seem to be getting worse, such a leader can fall suddenly.

North Korea also looks unstable, although what is really going on there is opaque. There are renewed rumours that Kim Jong Un is near death. Regardless, his policy of blowing up subordinates is probably not wise in the long run. Will some group of officers or officials sooner or later decide to band together secretly and move quickly to take out Kim before he kills them all? One of these days, something like this could happen.

Some are talking about civil war in America, or separation. Left and right seem to live in two different realities, and do not agree on the most fundamental principles. 

I think it is more likely that we are at a tipping point, and the general population and Overton window is about to lurch. I think of that old saw, “First they ignore you. Then they mock you. Then they fight you. Then you’ve won.” There might yet be a bigger fight, but the result is not in doubt. Insanity must over time collapse in the face of sanity. 

The core issue is abortion. It looks as though the Supreme Court is about to roll back Roe v. Wade to the extent, at least, that individual states will be able to impose significant limits on abortion. I suspect that this will draw down much of the pressure, like lancing a boil. A compromise will have been reached, at least temporarily.

Sudden and successful popular uprisings never seem to come in the most obvious countries at the most obvious time. Who expected Tunisia to kick off the Arab Spring? Were the Thirteen Colonies really the most oppressed part of the world in 1775? 

It is not the oppressive or cruel regimes that fall to popular uprisings, but regimes perceived to be incompetent.

There is a general mood everywhere that the “elites” have failed, wear no clothes, and are corrupt. So almost any state currently fills the bill. Who can say where this will reach the ultimate flash point? 

We might be in store for another year like 1848. Militating against that, however, is the fact that the populations in most countries are rapidly aging. Revolutions and civil unrest generally come from the young, who feel their way upwards blocked. An older population sees less value in upending the boat for possible future rewards.

So, on the whole, nothing very unexpected is going to happen next year.