Was Trudeau's Fate Sealed Last Night?

 

Last night five of the Canadian federal party leaders held their only English-language debate. 

My scorecard:

Best zinger—Annamie Paul telling Trudeau he is no feminist.

Best overall performance—Yves-Francois Blanchet. 

Winner- Erin O’Toole

Loser- Justin Trudeau

Mr. Congeniality- Jagmeet Singh

Possibly also a winner – Maxime Bernier

The clip from the debate that is being most shown now is Annamie Paul telling Trudeau he is no feminist, and naming Jane Philpott and Jody Wilson-Raybould. This cleverly reminded everyone of the Lavalin scandal, and strongly suggested that those who want to show support for Philpott and Wilson-Raybould should do so by voting Green. Trudeau made it worse with his comeback: “I’ll take no advice from you on caucus management.” By responding sharply, he tended to reinforce exactly what Paul was saying, that he was no feminist and would not listen to women. People are as likely to sympathize with Paul over her caucus problems as to blame her for them. And women outrank men socially. It never looks good when a man speaks harshly to a woman in public. Most people are instinctively uncomfortable at this. Trudeau looked ungentlemanly, and Canada is a polite society. 

Trudeau was then cut off by the moderator, so he was unable to make any further response. It left the charge by Paul standing. Torpedo taken below the water line.

Although she got in the best line, I do not think Annamie Paul profited from the debate, other than by being featured on the same platform as the major party leaders. And that may have been a problem instead of an advantage: the Greens exist as a protest vote, and it was hard to see how they were any different on the climate policy questions than the NDP, Liberals, or Conservatives. She too often made everything about herself, not policies, and kept pulling rank as a woman and a “person of colour.” Most egregiously, she offered to “educate” Blanchet about racism, and criticized him for failing to submit to this demand. One begins to sense what makes her own caucus and party dislike her. She is too openly all about Annamie Paul, and contemptuous of others.

By contrast, I really would like to vote for Blanchet, were it not for everything he stands for. He came across as though he was speaking for the rest of us against these lying politicians. It was an engaging performance. He was helped, no doubt, by the fact that the other leaders ignored him as irrelevant to the English-language debate. So he took little incoming fire. But then, when Paul tried to criticize and talk down to him, it was a terrible look for her. Perhaps, given his engaging style, it would have been a bad look for any of the other party leaders.

The debate will probably not help Blanchet much; he is indeed irrelevant to the English-language audience, since he is running candidates only in French Canada. Perhaps he will have burnished his credentials with his constituency by standing up for Quebeckers against charges of racism—that very exchange with Annamie Paul. She may have helped him and hurt herself; the implication was that Quebeckers in general needed to be “educated” by her about racism.

Erin O’Toole’s performance was, I think, ideal for his purposes, and he is the one candidate most helped by the debate. His tactic was to come across as moderate and unthreatening, not a scary right-winger who might stampede the NDP vote over to the Liberals. He did that: always smiling, always speaking in an even tone, sounding sensible. I think he also got in one good zinger against Trudeau: “you’ve never met a target.”

None of the other party leaders but Trudeau went after him, so he did not have to spend much time on the defensive. For Trudeau, he is only one of three dangerous adversaries. The BQ is their rival in Quebec, and it is as important for the Liberals to win votes on the left from the NDP as to win votes on the right from the Conservatives. So the Liberal fire was scattered. By the same token, it made sense for the NDP and the BQ to concentrate fire on Trudeau rather than O’Toole. 

O’Toole had been boosted the day before by Premier Legault of Quebec coming close endorsing him publicly. Legault is popular in Quebec. The Conservatives may not win many Quebec seats as a consequence, but this gives voters in Ontario license to vote for him. O’Toole had momentum; he had to lose the debate to break it. He did better than not lose. Nobody got a shot at him, and he looked prime ministerial.

I understand why Trudeau took the aggressive approach he did. He is on a downward trend in the polls; he needed to score some fast punches, or lose the decision. But his aggressiveness helped O’Toole, by making the latter look calm and reasonable by contrast. The moderator often stepped in and told him to be quiet, that he was speaking out of turn. This was not good optics; it made him look like a disobedient child instead of a leader.

Everyone else on the podium also came after him, forcing him onto the defensive. Good zingers do not come out of a defensive stance. 

Jagmeet Singh came across as likeable, as he has in previous debates. It may not help him much, because he was already likeable. More significant, perhaps, is that he sounded as though he were likably agreeing with the Conservatives at several points, and disagreeing with Trudeau. This makes sense for the NDP; for them, the Liberals are the main competition, not the Conservatives. And the main issue of the election seems to have become the Liberals’ calling of an unnecessary election. Singh may have helped the NDP. But in helping the NDP, Singh was also helping the Conservatives.

Maxime Bernier was excluded from the debates. I believe his followers were protesting outside the building. This was a boon for Erin O’Toole, as he escaped any sniping from the right. It may also have helped Bernier. It solidifies the impression that a vote for the PPC is the true protest vote. If you want to send a message to Ottawa and the Laurentian elite, Bernier now looks like the vehicle. Apparently, pollsters are finding a movement of Green voters to the PPC on the West Coast. Paul looked too welcome and at home on that stage. 

Some recent polls are showing PPC support as high as 10 or 11 percent, well ahead of the Greens, and in striking distance of the NDP. Other polls show it much lower. But I suspect the “shy Tory” syndrome. The higher figure is more likely to be accurate. Something may be happening. We may be faced with another minority government, leaving the big news of election night the unexpected strength of the PPC.