Vote Prediction for the Canadian Election

 

I have no idea who will win today's Canadian federal election, and I have no special insight. Just for fun, though, here is a seat projection--more or less what I think justice should produce as a result of the campaign. Now let's see how far it is from the reality.

NDP 40

Given that everybody likes Singh, and O'Toole does not look threatening to the left, and the Green vote will collapse, and a lot of people are fed up with Trudeau, I think the NDP's numbers should go up.

Bloc 40

Blanchet is good, and found a good issue. Again, I think people are annoyed with Trudeau. So the Bloc ought to pick up seats.

PPC 10

Okay, this is mostly wishful thinking. But the PPC is getting a lot of attention, and if people are really fed up, it is the ideal protest vote vehicle.

Greens 1

Elizabeth May holds her seat.

Liberals 120

Trudeau will probably do better than this based on the polls, but he really should not based on the campaign. He took the worst hit during the debates, Jody Wilson-Raybould's book came out, he called an unnecessary election, and there was nothing inspiring in his platform.

Conservatives 127

Also mostly wishful thinking--just enough to pip Trudeau. Basically calculated by giving them the remainder by default. This would be a gain of six from last time, which feels about right. O'Toole's campaign did a better job than Scheer. He came out of the starting gate well, and did not stumble in the debates. I do not see the PPC being much of a spoiler for him. The votes they get might have stayed home or gone to the Greens as the next best "plague on both your houses" option. If they cut his margin in some places, that works two ways: it may leave the Tory support more economically distributed, so they do not waste so much of it on unnecessarily high margins in Alberta. So the same rough voting percentage as last time could give them more seats.

Dumbest move in the election: O'Toole getting endorsed by Brian Mulroney. Mulroney is not remembered fondly even by Conservatives, and his term as leader ended in disaster for the party.