Canadian Election Prediction

 

As a fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic gained steam, on the day that Kabul fell, with two years left on their mandate, the Liberal government of Canada thought it was a good idea to call an election.

I cannot understand why the polls looked promising. This is a government that has careened from scandal to scandal, failure to failure. Their foreign policy has been disastrous; their spending has been profligate, even before the pandemic. The Governor-General who formally called the election was a recent replacement for a bad appointment. 

They expected to be rewarded for their management of the pandemic. But their management of the pandemic has actually been awful. They bungled the acquisition of vaccines. Canada has done well against the virus, but this is not their doing. The distribution of vaccines has been remarkably efficient: a provincial responsibility. The uptake has been fast: a credit to the Canadian public. In general, the feds have just imitated whatever the US government did in the crisis, meaning they have been spending recklessly. We will probably have an eviction and foreclosure crisis, and inflation to reckon with for some time to come. 

Perhaps the people have been paying attention. Contrary to everyone’s expectations, a week into the new campaign, the Conservatives are suddenly tied with the Libs in the polls.

The voters seem to be in the mood to punish the government for the unnecessary and cynical election. Against the backdrop of Afghanistan, there seem to be more important issues the government should be dealing with. 

Erin O’Toole and the Conservative campaign also seem to be performing so far above expectations. O’Toole has done an impressive job of improving his French. The Tory platform has come up with some novel ideas that sound forward-looking. People may want a clean broom and a fresh start after the dark days of the pandemic, just to emphasize the feeling that they are behind us. O’Toole seems to be projecting those vibes.

I dislike O’Toole’s lack of principles, running for the Conservative leadership as a “true blue” Tory, then swerving left. Having unprincipled leaders is never a good idea. But it might be good politics. It has often been said that the Liberals lose if they run to the right of the Tories. That equally means the Tories win if they run to the left of the Liberals. O’Toole seems to be trying to do this. 

Over the longer term, this is likely to shatter the right into warring factions. But over the shorter term, it might win O’Toole a term in government. Luckily for him, the further right is fatally splintered: there is the PPC, the Maverick Party, and now the True North Party. Bernier will not qualify for the leadership debates, so there will be no voice there to O’Toole’s right. 

In the meantime, running to the left as a Tory encourages the left to fragment. If the Conservatives look scary to the left, they unite behind the Liberals to keep the evil Tories out. If they look friendly, the NDP vote swells, at Liberal expense. 

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is personally rather popular. Yves-Francois Blanchet, leading the Bloc Quebecois, is also popular. The BQ pulls votes in Quebec mostly from the Liberals.

For now, the Conservatives have the momentum. Momentum feeds on itself. It can shift, but the Liberals, cynically, chose the shortest possible campaign, in hopes of freezing in their advantage. Now it tends to freeze in the Tory momentum.

Biden’s collapsing popularity in the US also hurts the Liberals. Nobody wants to admit it, but Canadian politics is largely monkey see, monkey do. Canadian leaders tend to be chosen in imitation of a recent popular American leader. Trudeau came in as a Canadian Obama; his father rose as a Canadian JFK. O’Toole was selected by his party because he looked faintly like Trump. Justin Trudeau got a second wind when Biden beat Trump. Now that Trump is looking better and Biden worse, the Canadian kid brother factor tilts in O’Toole’s favour.

I predict the Conservatives will get the most seats.