The Morning After

Boris

Two great news events yesterday: Boris Johnson’s majority win, and Andrew Scheer’s resignation.

Johnson’s win? Yet again, the polls were wrong. They saw a tightening race, and a bare majority. Not only are polls usually wrong any more, they are always wrong in the same direction: in underestimating the vote on the right. I think this is “shy Tory syndrome”: as the left-wing media try to portray ordinary conservative points of view as intolerable, people are less inclined to admit them to a stranger. Thank God for the secret ballot.

Johnson’s victory comes as a relief, but does not put me in the mood for celebration. At last, Brexit should get done, and the UK can start to deal with other issues. But it has been ridiculously difficult and prolonged. I think Churchill’s adage applies: the people can always be counted on to do the right thing—once they’ve tried every conceivable other alternative.

Johnson himself is a loose cannon, like Trump. Who knows how it will go? At least, he should be immensely entertaining, and that is worth a lot.

Andrew Scheer’s resignation, too, does not cheer me. I accept that it is best for him to go. As noted here, he never had the instincts of a leader. And his constant smile suggests mendacity—a mendacity that was beginning to show. Little scandals here and there. But I cannot see changing leaders as the solution for the Conservatives. Max is gone. I see no one in the wings who stands out.

On the model of past Canadian political experience, what the Tories need is a Trump. Canadian politics always works that way, with about a seven year lag. Justin Trudeau was Canada’s Obama, just as his father was Canada’s Kennedy.

The UK now also follows the pattern: they have found their Trump equivalent in Boris Johnson. And Ontario voted in Doug Ford on the resemblance.

But I see no potential Trumps in caucus. They need someone with a steel spine and an engaging manner, and they need someone who speaks both official languages. This is a rare combination.

Kevin O’Leary saw himself in that mirror last time, but he lacked the French. Pierre Poilievre has the spine and the French, but lacks the engaging manner. Rona Ambrose lacks the engaging manner, and her French is weak. Lisa Raitt has the engaging manner and perhaps the French, but perhaps not the spine. And she has lost her seat.

If not within the caucus, is there someone from outside who might fit? Trump, after all, came from outside. So did Brian Mulroney.

There might be some business guy out there who could do it; nobody comes to my mind.

But here’s a thought: how about Jordan Peterson?

He has in the past expressed interest in politics. He has star quality, and probably decent French. He obviously connects with people.

I am not myself a big fan of his psychology; but that is beside the point.