Why Trudeau Should Cling to Power

In 1973, Chile's Salvador Allende committed suicide rather than resign as prime minister and vacate the PMO. Unconfirmed reports are that he shot himself in the back with a machine gun.

The polls are now shifting quickly. The likeliest result currently is that the Conservatives win the largest number of seats, buy not a majority. People are reporting this as “a Conservative minority government.” And I see headlines warning that Trudeau may be planning to illegitimately hang on to power anyway.

As if this would be some affront to democracy.

As I understand the Westminster system, Trudeau would be not just within his rights, but right, to stay in power.

I do not say he will; popular opinion has a role here, and may force a new precedent at any time. But by the logic of the Westminster system, the proper thing would indeed be for Trudeau to stay in power and try to form a coalition.

The prime minister is not automatically the leader of the party with the most seats in the house. The prime minister can be, in principle, any member of the House of Commons, or even anyone outside the House, appointed by the Crown as her chief advisor; but this is then immediately subject to their ability to demonstrate the confidence of the House.

Trudeau has been appointed prime minister. He need not resign, now, unless he loses the confidence of the House. Until and unless a vote is held, nobody can assume he has—so long as no other leader can prove that they command a majority. The proper thing, then, is for him to face the house and see if he still has their confidence.

If any one other party holds a majority of the seats in the House after the election, it is simply wasting everyone’s time if the previous PM does not step down. So he will, so as not to look too desperate for power. But if no one party does, the current prime minister has the right to see if he can continue to command a majority: he has first crack at forming a formal or informal coalition. To waive that right to someone else is similarly wasting everyone’s time; if they cannot, it simply comes back to him, and two prime ministers have had to resign in rapid succession instead of one.

Politically, it might be unwise for him to hang on if it is clear his opponent has a better shot at forming a coalition than he does. That too might look like clinging to power. But that’s a bit of a moot point; he will ask around pretty quickly after the election and see what he can come up with, and his chief opponent will do the same, and it will be clear pretty quickly to everyone involved who has a majority coalition and who does not.

After this election, Trudeau looks to have the better shot at a coalition—since the probable third-largest party, the NDP, has already ruled out any coalition with the Tories. So it is quite likely to be his proper course to hang on to power even if the Tories hold more seats. Popular opinion may force him to resign anyway, but that is not the way it is supposed to work.

Either way, I now expect a very unsteady minority government that is likely to fall within the year.