An Electorate on a Razor's Edge

The Toronto Archdiocese held a candidates’ debate last night. Not a leaders’ debate; just designated spokesmen for each party, all of whom were candidates, but for various ridings.

Apparently the hall sold out within 17 hours. The event was therefore broadcast to four other venues, and livestreamed. A friend watched from Vancouver.

As with the local all-candidates’ meeting I attended earlier, this suggests a strong interest this time.

Given that the platforms of the three main parties are almost the same, why? What is so at stake?

The opinion polls, moreover, show little movement.

It seems to me the explanation is that people are interested in the election, but have not yet made up their minds whom to support. Meantime, they are parking their votes in their traditional spots.

This means the campaign matters more than usual.

Trudeau is probably in the most trouble. The voters already know him; they have what they need to make a decision.

This unusually large group of voters must therefore be trying to decide among the alternatives. The opportunity is for one opposition party or another, with a good campaign, to pick up the lion’s share of the remainder and suddenly sweep ahead.

More or less as the Liberals and Trudeau managed to do last time.

This is also bad news for the Conservatives, since they are the obvious alternative if the consideration is to vote out Trudeau. They are failing to appeal, and voters are instead nosing around the NDP, Greens, and PPC.

But then again, maybe not so much the NDP. Current polls show them well down from their support last election. Even traditional NDP voters are apparently not parking there.

The big opportunity is for the Greens and the PPC. Perhaps the BQ too, but they are not a factor in the ridings where I have seen these turnouts.

If it seems odd that voters would be undecided between the PPC and NDP, supposedly at opposite ends of the ideological spectrum, this is the usual thing. Political analysts are big on ideology. Disaffected voters are usually most interested in sending the strongest message they can to the ancien regime that they are dissatisfied. When, in 1968, Bobby Kennedy was assassinated, the candidate that gained the largest share of his supporters was George Wallace—the southern segregationist. We saw the same dynamic last Ontario election; polls were surging back and forth between the PCs under Ford and the NDP under Horvath.

This is also what we have seen elsewhere recently; in the last few European elections. The electorate has been increasingly forking to Greens, on the left, and populist/nationalist parties on the right.

I expect this will be the big story this election: gains by both the PPC and the Greens. The question is which will surge the most.

This should produce a very unstable minority government, either Liberal or Conservative. Surging, neither Greens nor PPC are going to be interested in propping anybody up. NDP might back the Liberals, but doing so risks surrendering their usual support to the Greens for the sake of self-identifying with a sinking ship. So a new election is likely quite soon.

Will it be PM May or PM Bernier?