Dem Stakes

Forget it. Nobody votes for a guy with a moustache. Ask Tom Dewey. Wait a minute: are we sure that isn't Tom Dewey in blackface? Isn't that disqualifying these days?

Now that Bernie Sanders is in the race, can Michael Dukakis be far behind? Why haven't we heard yet from Barney Frank?

Current odds:

Kamala Harris: most likely to be nominee. You can see the operatives lining up behind her. But given her inexperience, the fact that she is not yet defined in the public eye, and has not really been vetted, great potential to implode.

Joe Biden: living on name recognition. Would fade once others gained exposure. He might have a shot if Harris implodes.

Tulsi Gabbard: dark horse most likely to catch fire. Wait--did I just mix a metaphor? We have already seen weird stories that she is Putin’s candidate, that she’s “homophobic,” that her campaign team is imploding. Conclusion: someone thinks she is a real threat, and is scared. And such attacks, rather than hurting her, might mark her as the one candidate people can vote for to really get up the party establishment’s nose.

Beto O’Rourke: his fifteen minutes are up. People say, “But he’s such a great fundraiser.” Put another way, he’s bought and pre-owned by special interests. Not hard to turn that against him.

Cory Booker: not a symbolic choice after Barack Obama. Empty feel-good campaign. And not impressive personally. No reason for anyone to vote for him.

Bernie Sanders: people are tired of him. His main strength last time was simply that he was not Hillary Clinton. He still isn’t, but now others can make that claim.

Elizabeth Warren: probably could not carry Massachusetts in her own party’s primary. Hell, probably could not carry even a single Cherokee reservation. Did somebody say reservations? Any additional exposure only hurts her; she sounded best before she opened her mouth.

Michael Bloomberg: might surprise. For one thing, his successor as New York mayor, De Blasio, is making him look awfully good by comparison. He has the funding. With Trump’s nomination secure, a moderate like him might benefit from crossover primary voting.

Gillibrand, Klobuchar: look and feel similar enough that I think they cancel each other’s chances out by splitting the blonde vote. Given that their main pitch is “Vote for me. I have a vagina!” Both of them are pipped there by Harris, who can also boast a more fashionable skin tone. There are also disturbing claims about how Klobuchar treats her staff. Since they seem so similar, Gillibrand will probably get blamed too. I blame her myself.

Julian Castro: someone says he’s one to watch. Okay, I’ll watch. Is he moving?