Beyond Thunderdome

Maxime Bernier.

Mad Max has hit the highway. 

Can't say I blame him. The Trump trade dispute has brought his signature issue, supply management, to the fore, and his party was taking the stand opposed to his own. What is he supposed to do, and preserve his integrity?

This is great news for Justin Trudeau. A divided right could preserve him in power indefinitely, as it did Jean Chretien.

This is a disaster for Andrew Scheer. Rumours are that he got the leadership through the support of the milk and egg cartels, who were desperate to stop Bernier. And he was not prepared to do a Peter McKay and double-cross them. But for the sake of this understandable refusal to betray his original supporters, he threw away a perfect issue for the Conservatives in supply management, and caused a split in the party. I think he also served the voters and the interests of Canada poorly, by avoiding a vital debate and leaving them no choice.

My guess is that if Bernier has enough time to organize before the next election, he should crush Scheer. Quebec is tribal; anyone with right-wing sensibilities, outside the milk producers themselves, are going to vote for Bernier, not Scheer. And the right is resurgent in Quebec, with fears over immigration and with the rise of the Coalition Avenir Quebec. At the same time, Bernier will appeal to the strong libertarian streak in the West. On paper, he could combine the support of both the old Reform Party and the old Bloc Quebecois.

It seems to me there is also a decent chance that Doug Ford, newly elected in Ontario, will throw his support behind Bernier rather than Scheer. It would be awkward for him not to; Bernier is his ideological counterpart, and similar in tone.

Bernier could end up leading the official opposition, and Scheer could turn into another Joe Clark heading up a Red Tory rump, but in less time.

If I were a backroom type within the Conservative Party, you know what I'd be pushing for? A deal to get Bernier to dissolve his new party in return for Scheer resigning, Stephen Harper stepping back in as interim leader, to lead the party into the next election, with the promise that he would step down for another leadership race within a set period after that, and with a commitment that the party would henceforth oppose supply management.