North Korea Calls off Their Guam Attack

It is not surprising that North Korea has now backed down from its threat to fire a missile at Guam. To do so would have been idiotic. In the first place, it is unlikely North Korea really could land a missile anywhere near Guam, and trying to do so would just demonstrate their incapacity. In the second, trying to do so would give the US justification for hitting North Korea without Chinese intervention.

So why did Kim Jong Un make such a stupid threat in the first place? Because North Korea has been trained to do it. Danegeld. They threaten war, fire some artillery, test-fire a missile, and the US and Japan rush to the negotiating table and offer them something to stop. And so far, the US has been stupid enough to fall for it every time.

It looks like Trump called their bluff. Say what you will; he knows how to negotiate.

Will the Norks now still persist with their nuclear programme? Perhaps not. What is in it for them, if the cannot use it for ransom purposes? After all, no matter what, if North Korea goes nuclear against anyone, they get wiped out.

Not that we are justified in being sanguine about it all. They can still sell technology to others to whom it might be more useful...