Prediction: Harper Stays

The press continues to speculate that Stephen Harper will step down as Conservative leader.

I feel confident in predicting this is not going to happen. As I wrote before, Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee in 2016; Chris Christie will not be the Republican nominee; the Republicans will win the midterms this year; and Stephen Harper will fight another election.

First, Harper has earned the right to stay Conservative leader if he wants, by his record of success so far. The Conservatives have an unhappy history of turning on their leader, but I think they have learned this does not pay. I think Justin Trudeau's current support will fade soon. I think the Senate scandal is inherently small and tangential to the Prime Minister. That mud won't stick for long.

I think Harper's bland persona is a recipe for longevity in Canadian politics. Canadians are a low-key, taking care of business people, and they feel comfortable with low-key leaders: Mackenzie King, Louis St. Laurent, Bill Davis.

And I think Harper wants it. I think he is a political animal.

Anyway, I don't think Rob Ford is quite ready yet to take over the reins.