Mushrooms in My Back Garden

Here, as I see it, is the probable current Israeli thinking on Iran:

- The US will not strike Iran's nuclear facilities. Their troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian Gulf are too vulnerable, as is the oil link through the Gulf. From the American point of view, it is far better and far less destabilizing to the region to let Israel do it. Therefore, if the thing is going to get done, Israel is going to have to do it.

- Israel needs at least tacit US permission to strike—they will have to fly over Iraq.

- There is an overwhelming likelihood, at minimum, that Iran will get nuclear weapons sometime within the next eight years—some say as soon as next spring. That so, the time to strike is now. After next January, there will be a new president, who may well not be as well-disposed as this one to permitting an Israeli strike.

- In theory, one could wait until November, to see who wins the US election. But this is still risky: even McCain is a relatively unknown quantity, compared to a clear yes from the US now. And what happens if the Iranian reaction gets messy? Bush, as president, will probably want the time to mount his own preferred response in this case. It would not be good for US security interests to have this happen in the midst of the relative confusion of a turnover of administrations.

- Accordingly, if it is tactically possible, the time for any Israeli strike against Iran is now.

- It is also probably in the US's best interests, and that of the current administration, to help in any way they can to make this tactically possible. First, it takes the onus, the blame, and most of the risk, off them in acheiving a US foreign policy objective. Second, from the partisan point of view, an Israeli strike on Iran could be a useful “October surprise” for the Republican party, bringing foreign and military policy to the fore in the current US election. That would certainly help McCain against the relatively inexperienced Obama. Third, the current administration probably has the same fear as do the Israelis—that the succeeding administration may not follow the policies they believe in.

- Ehud Olmert, the Israeli PM, would also hugely benefit from a military strike on Iran ASAP: it would take the heat off in his current corruption scandal.

Hence, expect an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities before November.

I expect things to get lively around here soon.