The Case for McCain-Huckabee

Assuming McCain is the Republican nominee, he might do well to choose Mike Huckabee as his running mate.

By conventional wisdom, the most a VP nominee can do for the ticket is to deliver his home state. Huckabee can probably do that—and Arkansas might well swing otherwise to Clinton, its former first lady, if she is the Democratic nominee. So Huck is ideal on the conventional measure.

But there is more. Huckabee also ably represents a specific constituency, which is notably loyal to him: the born-again evangelicals. It seems likely he can pull them to the ticket; McCain holds no particular attraction for them otherwise; and they are a crucial voting block.

This article points out why.

First, they actually represent about half the total votes cast in a general election.

Second, they are, perhaps contrary to popular belief, up for grabs between the parties. Here are the stats for recent contests:

Bush I vs. Clinton: 39% to 35%
Dole vs. Clinton: 49% to 43%
Bush II vs. Gore: 57% to 42%
Bush II vs. Kerry 62% to 38%

With the closeness of those last two elections, the evangelical vote was crucial.

Here’s what polls of born-agains say so far this year:

Democrat 40% Republican 29% Undecided 28%

In other words, the Republicans could easily lose this vital group, if they do not actively target it. Huck likely pulls them in.

Huck also presumably helps in the South, which is huge: the Dems have never won without it.

Huckabee may help with another crucial group: Hispanics. He and McCain stand out as “soft on immigration,” bucking the bulk of their party. On this issue, not incidentally, the party is wrong. Allowing immigration is a matter of fundamental human freedoms--freedom of movement and the right to work. But on a purely practical level, Hispanics are the fastest-growing demographic in the US, and are presumably sympathetic to their illegal compatriots. Lose the Hispanics, and you lose the future. Bush and Rove, wisely, worked hard for Hispanic approval. A McCain--Huckabee ticket should further that work, and slap down unfortunate nativist tendencies in the Republican Party.

Huckabee is also young enough to succeed to the presidency after four or eight years. Given that much more time in the public spotlight, that much more national experience, and his talents, I expect him to grow into a truly formidable candidate when that time comes. This is important for the future of the party and the conservative movement.

Huckabee’s executive experience as a governor is a good balance to McCain’s legislative experience; and the geographical balance is there.

Beyond this, all else aside, Huckabee is a formidable political talent, a prodigy. He ought to be harnessed if at all possible. He would be superb as a point man, another traditional role of the Veep-designate. His down-home style would complement McCain’s “straight talk” well, underlining the message that this would be an honest, straightforward administration. I think this would run well against Clinton, who always gives one the sense that she is hiding something, that what she says has been carefully scripted.