A Baker's Dozen Reasons McCain Could Win

Could go either way. But in a race between McCain and Obama, if you’re going to bet on either, I’d say, bet John McCain. Here’s why:

1. Obama still has a fight on his hands for the nomination. He may get damaged in this fight. It was Al Gore who dug up Willie Horton against Dukakis.

2. The fight will drain Obama’s financial resources, while McCain can husband his for the general election. This is what killed Bob Dole.

3. Obama is relatively unknown. His public persona can still be shaped by new information. He is open to scandal, smear, and clever characterizations by his opponents. McCain, long a public figure, is much less so. This killed John Kerry, not to mention John Dean.

4. For the same reason, Obama is more vulnerable to a gaffe; and, being less experienced, more likely to make one.

5. Gaffes seem to have already begun. Michelle is “not proud of her country,” for example… Obama’s story of soldiers scrounging for ammunition in Afghanistan is being questioned.

6. Obama has received a free ride and more, so far, from the press. They are likely to get bored by this story line in time for the general election. The knives will come out. Again, being new, Obama is especially vulnerable to this. McCain has already been through this to some extent, and does not start as the same sort of media phenomenon.

7. If the situation in Iraq goes well, it hugely helps the Republicans. If it goes badly, it hugely helps the Democrats. Currently, the news looks good. The best bet is that present trends will continue.

8. There is always the chance, even the likelihood, of some new foreign affairs crisis. If it happens, it argues for McCain, with his foreign policy expertise and experience.

9. An economic downturn should help the Democrats. But maybe not with this matchup. Economic turmoil too calls for an experienced hand. McCain’s overall experience and proven leadership, even though without expertise in this field, may also in this case trump Obama’s inexperience. McCain is not identified closely with the Bush regime and its economic policies; it will not be easy to blame him for the problem.

10. Republican National Committee fundraising this quarter is running ahead of DNC fundraising. They’ve already banked the max for their presidential nominee. This too suggests McCain may have more money to get his message out in the fall. This also suggests that the folks with big money are now betting that the Republicans will win the presidency this cycle—they usually invest in the probable winner. This sort of money market has in the past been more accurate than polls in predicting election results.

11. Republicans are more likely to unite behind their nominee. Republicans historically have this discipline. Democrats are more likely to stay home if they are unhappy with a nominee. And, with a tougher battle for the nomination, there is also more likely to be more disgruntled Democratic than Republican voters.

12. Bill Clinton did not actually tag Obama as a “fairy tale.” But a lot of people think he did, and I’ve seen the phrase used several times since. This is a strong indication that the label resonates. That’s a big vulnerability.

13. Right now, polls show Obama and McCain about even. On even polls, bet on the Republicans. They’re better at getting out their vote.