The Two Keys to Power in Canada

Warren Kinsella, who is not always wise, said some wise words on his web site recently. He noted that the Liberal Party of Canada traditionally has two unique selling propositions which kept then in power for so many years. As I reinterpret them, these are:

1. Managerial competence; and
2. National unity (more specifically, ability to handle the Quebec brief).

This strikes me as spot on. Moreover, it may be the key to political power in Canada for anyone. Canada is a conservative country; Canadians do not like the boat rocked. Hence managerial competence is important to us. And what is more important to any country than national unity? Take these two overriding considerations, and I don’t think ideology plays the same part in Canadian politics that it does in many other countries.

Let’s theorize, then, that Canadian governments succeed or fail with the public to the extent that they deliver on these two goals. Diefenbaker’s government failed on 1, collapsing into infighting; but also to many did not seem to understand Quebec. Mulroney’s failed on 2, by putting the nation through the crises of Meech Lake and Charlottetown to no effect, and also developed more than a whiff of corruption. Martin’s inherited Liberals failed on both 1 and 2 with the Quebec corruption scandals. Turner perhaps failed on 1, with the appointments scandal and by, generally, appearing bumbling. And, by contrast with Quebecker Mulroney, his ability to handle the Quebec brief did not look that formidable.

Given all this, the task before Stephen Harper is clear, and simple—and just what he has been doing so far. He must maintain a coherent Quebec policy, and he must run a tight ship. Moreover, the scales may have tilted somewhat in the Tories’ favour on issue 2. Keeping Alberta happy is becoming significant as well, as its population and economy burgeons. On that, the Tories have the historic advantage.

Now let’s look at the prospective Liberal leadership candidates by these measures. Bob Rae’s baggage would be a big problem on managerial competence—he did nothing to burnish his managerial reputation in Ontario. Kennedy runs into problems on the Quebec front, because of his low party support in that province.

Either Dion or Ignatieff, however, look promising in terms of this mandate.

Kinsella thinks Ignatieff has hurt himself on 2 by saying that Quebec is a “nation.” I don’t think so. This might have been so twenty or thirty years ago, but I don’t think it’s that controversial an idea now. If we can talk of “First Nations,” as we commonly do now, then the currency of the term “nation” has been debased enough in Canada that it can readily refer to what elsewhere might be thought of as an “ethnic group.” And how can we refuse “nationhood” to Quebec when we readily give it to small Indian bands?

Ignatieff does run the risk, with his political inexperience, of putting his foot in his mouth. This may or may not concern Canadians; I have some hopes that we are politically mature enough not to take this too seriously. Either he or Dion will have to come up with a coherent and saleable Alberta strategy, and do their best to surround themselves with what looks like a competent managerial team.

If so, we should have a very interesting fight on our hands next time at the polls.