Ignatieff Still Leads

At the moment, watching the Liberal stockticker, things are looking better for Bob Rae. He is now ahead of Dion, and by a reasonable margin—more than fifty delegates. At the same time, no other candidate looks quite strong enough to put Ignatieff over the top by delivering their support to him. This reduces the temptation to play kingmaker. Polls suggest that, if delegates are simply released by candidates lower down as they leave the ballot, Rae has an advantage over Ignatieff.

However, note how strong Kennedy is. He’s within striking distance of third place, just behind Dion. Less than a hundred votes currently separate those three, Dion, Kennedy, and Rae. This is good for Ignatieff. Any one of those three can hope to end up in second place on the first ballot, making them the natural alternative candidate. Even after the first ballot, there wil lbea temptation to hang on in hopes of moving up to the number two spot with second- or even third-ballot support. There are more than enough ex officio candidates who will be going uncommitted, or who could change their allegiances: a strong performance in the last lap could make up the difference. This means these three have reason now to struggle with one another, keep their candidacies going, and leave Ignatieff alone.

Another consideration: the convention is in Montreal. Quebec delegates are therefore somewhat more likely to actually make it to the convention than others. This helps Ignatieff, who runs higher in Quebec than his national numbers (so far); the more so since Dion leads Rae in Quebec, and so this makes the number two spot more questionable.

I’d say based on all this, Ignatieff remains by a slim margin the best bet to win.