Bob Rae's Chances

So it looks like Bob Rae is in the Liberal leadership race.

Does he have a chance?

I think definitely. It depends a lot on who else jumps in, but he would have been a legitimate candidate in any event. No former premier of Ontario can be considered a political lightweight.

The fact that he is not a Liberal will not matter. Not with the Liberal Party. Trudeau hadn’t been a liberal for long either. If he’s running against Stronach, Brison, and Ignatieff, who would be able to cast the first stone?

The most important thing is having a base, a constituency on which to build. Rae is a natural as standard-bearer for the party’s ideological left. I can’t see another candidate on the horizon who would be able to challenge him for this base.

He also, reportedly, has important backers in the Ontario provincial party. Ontario is not strong as a regional base; it is generally split among several candidates; but it is also a big pool.

He has a serious chance to collect support in Quebec, barring the appearance there of a strong favourite son, as he is bilingual. Even if Dion enters the race, Rae should be able to hold his own against him in Quebec.

He has a lot of political experience; his name recognition should put him at the head of the pack early, and he is unlikely, with his experience, to badly stumble. Nor are there likely to be important skeletons still hidden in his closet that could sink him.

The same is not at all true of possible challengers Stronach, Brison, Dryden, and Ignatieff. Any one of them could self-destruct through inexperience. In fact, it looks like Brison already has.

The rap against him is that his stint as Ontario premier was not to his credit; it was a bad government.

And it was; I was in Ontario at the time, and felt the effects.

He must address this; but I think perhaps he can. His line is that he has learned from it. Why not? Winston Churchill also screwed up in his first years in cabinet; but he learned from it. Rae has always been considered a bright man. He was also, let’s be fair, hobbled by a complete lack of experienced or even qualified hands throughout his Ontario cabinet.

In addition, and perhaps most importantly, some very major former Chretien operatives have coalesced behind Rae. This is huge. The Chretienites would like nothing better than the revenge of taking back the party from the Martinites. If they see Rae as their standard-bearer and their ticket back in, they are likely to work with the fervour of the possessed for him.

Of course, this will cause a reaction among Martinites, and perhaps a bloody leadership fight. But who can they coalesce around as their candidate? They wanted McKenna, but he bowed out. I could see them backing Ignatieff, but not with the same unity as the Chretienites with Rae. They are also probably relatively dispirited, and would have less fight in them.

If Rae won the liberal leadership, I do not think he would go on to win the next election. But then, I don’t think any Liberal leader would. He might still be the best choice for the party: a steady, experienced hand at the helm, who will at least hold things together while the party renews itself, and while some of the very promising but less experienced candidates, notably Ignatieff and Dryden, get a bit more experience and exposure.