'Od's Composite Poll of Polls

A review of the polls from 2004 shows the final polls were off the actual voting by 4 to 7 points: that is, the Liberal vote was higher than predicted by that much.

The Conservatives are currently leading by 6-10 points. SES – 6.5%; Ipsos-Reid 12%; Ekos 10%; SC 9%; Leger 9%. That’s an average 9.3%.

Let’s discount the claim that the Tories are sliding; that seems to have been an artifact of a rogue SES poll, expressly denied by Ekos and Ipsos Reid. They’re holding steady, and have been for two weeks.

But let’s assume the numbers are as badly wrong this time. That suggests, at worst, that the Conservatives will probably still win.

But suppose they’re wrong in the other direction: that this time the polls are underestimating the Conservative vote? That would put the real Conservative lead at around 13-14 points. A landslide.

If they’re simply right as they stand, there’s a slightly better than 50% chance of a Tory majority. Eight percent, Andrew Coyne reports, is the usual minimum spread that, in Canada, produces a majority of seats.

Most likely explanation for what happened last time is that the undecideds broke heavily for the Liberals at the last minute, and some NDP support rushed to them to stop the Conservatives.

Layton is working hard against the latter this time. If Harper and Layton can get the last-minute focus on the consequences of reelecting the Liberals, it is probably not going to happen this time.



They’ve gotten to Kinsella, poor devil. His site has been blank all day.

Oh, thank God. He’s back. It must have been no more than a kidnapping. But he’s gone strangely quiet.



More on Martin’s Campaign:

Andrew Coyne:

…the campaign that he and his minions have waged over the last eight weeks -- by turns empty, dishonest, hysterical, vicious, crude, demagogic, shrill, incoherent, divisive, xenophobic, hypocritical, not to say staggeringly incompetent -- makes his impending departure from the scene a positive delight. I am literally counting the hours.

There has never been a campaign to match it -- not even the loathsome campaign the same team mounted in 2004.


John Crosbie:

"I was active in politics for 27 years, 10 as a provincial elected member and 17 as a federally elected member, and I've been interested and involved in it all my life. This is certainly the worst behaviour I have seen of any party leader."


Ed Broadbent:

Read his entire indictment here:

Ed lectures the freshman class.


Whatever else happens, Paul Martin is unfit to be Canadian Prime Minister. He is fit to have his name go down in Canadian history as a byword for dirty politics and a lust for power, like “McCarthy,” “Nixon,” or perhaps “Duplessis.”