It's Happening

The polls now suggest we are close to a tipping point that could lead not only to a Tory government, but a Tory majority.

Liberals and Conservatives are now running about even--Tories with a slight lead--in the country as a whole. But the big news is in Quebec. Stephen Harper's strategy of concentrating on Quebec, as I had hoped, seems to be paying dividends. Some polls now show the Conservatives tied with the Liberals in Quebec. SES shows their support growing in that province by 3 percentage points a day.

This is the tipping point. If the Tories clearly take over from the Liberals as the federalist alternative in Quebec, the Liberal vote in Quebec collapses. If the Liberal vote in Quebec collapses, the Liberal vote in Ontario collapses. There will be some movement from the NDP to the Liberals in the face of a probable Tory win, but this should be a smaller factor. Some NDP voters would actually, I believe, feel more comfortable with the Conservatives than the Liberals, and may migrate to the Tories as well.

I think it would take something like a disaster in the Tory campaign to lose the election now. Fifty percent chance of a Tory majority, by me.