Papal Sweeps

The papal election is also interesting, but who knows anything about it? It is always unpredictable. My sense is that picking a black pope or a Latin American pope or an Indian pope to follow a Polish pope, as the press clearly wants, would be gimmicky, and starts to look like a racial quota system. I say go with Ratzinger, for his intellectual stature, or pick an Italian to prevent such a precedent.

An Irish bookie is taking odds. Cardinal Ratzinger leads (7-2), followed by Cardinal Lustiger of Paris (4-1). Both are "conservative." Leading moderate is Cardinal Martini of Milan at 9-2. Trailing are, in order, Cardinal Hummes of Sao Paolo, Arinze of Nigeria, and Tettamanzi of Milan.

Rumour is that Ratzinger has 50 votes going in.

But of course, none of this means anything. Nobody who is likely to place a bet has any inside information, and leading now does not mean you can get the two-thirds majority needed. This requirement favours dark-horse compromise candidates.