The Durham Byelection

 

Jamil Jivani’s win in the Durham byelection illustrates an important trend. The Liberal vote collapsed, but did not go to the NDP. The NDP vote declined even more dramatically. This defies the conventional political wisdom that Canada has a baked-in left-wing majority, and the Conservatives only win when the Liberals and the Dippers split the vote. 

People are not that ideological. People are either for or against the status quo, satisfied or dissatisfied with things as they are. When Robert Kennedy was shot during the 1968 US presidential race, the bulk of his popular support in polls went to George Wallace. It wasn’t the specific issue, it was getting the rascals out.

The left now obviously represents the powers that be; and Jagmeet Singh has cemented that with his informal coalition. Those who want change will go to the Tories or the PPC.

The NDP has made its brand that of opposing the state of things as they are; and along with the Liberals most often being the power that is, representing the powers that be, and both being on the left, that created an illusion of Canada having a permanent left-wing majority. And, conveniently, protected the powers that be from any real challenge. It was a controlled opposition.

That may be changing now. Perhaps only for a Diefenbaker moment; perhaps for the longer term.