New Hampshire Prediction

 

New Hampshire is voting today. Lets me get my prediction in just in time to be proven wrong.

I predict Donald Trump gets over 55% in the Republican contest. I have seen a series of major last-minute endorsements; he has lots of media from the Iowa caucuses; and there have been a lot of vicious pundit attacks on Nikki Haley in the last few days. That looks like momentum in Trump’s direction. I don’t see a lot of Democrats crossing over to vote against Trump in the Republican primary, because him winning the nomination now looks like a foregone conclusion. So why waste your vote? And, strategically, would you rather run against Nikki Haley? Why? The same logic should dampen Hailey’s turnout among dissatisfied Republicans. So I expect Trump to outperform the most recent polls, which have him at 52.2%.

Rather than cross over, despite there being no delegates at stake, I can see Democrats wanting to vote in the Democratic poll in order to show their anger at the DNC for cancelling their first-in-the-nation primary and denying them a voice. And the way to do that is to vote, but to vote anybody but Biden. Biden’s campaign has also crippled itself by not having his name on the ballot; they are running a low-budget write-in campaign. So I think Biden will do worse in the Democratic poll than Trump does in the Republican.

Those will be the news stories: Trump triumph, Biden embarrassment.

Now go ahead and prove me wrong, Fates.