Hopeful Signs

 

A rainbow violates the night.

There are promising signs out there. 

The ‘publicans down in the United States look likely to sweep their midterms.

The US Supreme Court looks poised to possibly outlaw racial quotas—“affirmative action.” This does not affect Canada, but whatever big brother does, little brother always wants to also do.

Elon Musk has taken over Twitter. And begun firings.

Russia continues to lose ground in Ukraine.

The protests in Iran continue at strength.

The government of Canada looks increasingly bad in the Judicial Inquiry into the imposition of the Emergency Measures Act. The truth is being heard.

If the Republicans take both houses, they can launch investigations into big tech-government collusion to suppress speech; into Hunter Biden and Joe Biden and their dirty dealings. Into FBI corruption. Into Pfizer, the drug companies, the vaccine; into where the virus came from. Musk may reveal some dirt in the Twitter backrooms; in any case, the national dialogue should now be restored. If Twitter refuses to censor and cancel, other platforms will soon have to do the same, or lose their audiences to Twitter.

The end of affirmative action may have ripple effects throughout society, in the US first, but maybe also elsewhere, ending the worst racism and the anti-equality doctrine of “equity.” It is officially unconstitutional. That is an important moral argument to be used against it; and it will influence related decisions coming to lower courts.

Putin may be out in Russia, and replaced by a less aggressive figure. This seems almost the necessary outcome. What is someone coming in promising to win the war in Ukraine going to do that has not already been done? Russia’s only honourable escape is withdrawal and peace, blaming it all on Putin. This discredits Putin’s policies generally; as a result, there may then be an opening to the West. There is no reason other than delusions of imperial grandeur for Russia to put itself in opposition to the West; Germany or France do well enough as part of the broader coalition of democratic nations. Wanting territory rather than prosperity is old thinking.

The protests in Iran seem now likely to take down the government. Once women are in the street, it is probably over. The collapse of the Iranian regime is quite liable also to end the civil wars in Yemen and Syria, which largely rely on Iranian funding of one side. Israel’s security may improve—the Shah was once an ally--and the threat of an Islamist bomb may be gone. The fall of both Iranian and Russian regimes, if it happens in fairly quick succession, are likely to trigger some serious protest in China. That regime too is shaky, probably hanging by a thread because of economic troubles fought with increased repression, and may fall in turn. Imagine how the world might change then.

Meanwhile, here in Canada, while the judicial inquiry into the Emergency Act has no legal force, it should be valuable for several court cases proceeding against the government. Pressure will also be strong on the NDP to stop supporting a government convicted of an illegal grab for power. They may already be looking for a way out of their support agreement. If so, this would be it. If not, at a minimum, surely now, with such a judgement or popular conclusion, there is no way the Liberals could win another election.

Covid? As I expected, we have already almost forgotten. The fundamentals are surely still there. In a couple of years, all will be back to normal. 

In sum, I predict a collapse of a number of deserving regimes within the next year or so. A movement significant enough to look like a new birth of freedom. Something on the level of the fall of the Berlin Wall.