The Next Move for Ukraine

 

Had I been Ukraine’s chief military strategist, and assuming I had the resources, the ideal overall design for a counteroffensive against Russia is obvious. It is Napoleon’s classic strategy. First, you attack both flanks. In a small-scale battle this can be decisive, because you can then outflank and surround. In this case, you cannot, because the mass of foreign troops is spread out and you cannot move into Russian territory. 

But attacking the flanks is still the best option, because it pins down troops as far away as possible from the centre.

Which is where your main blow then falls.

In this case, there is all the more reason to hit hard now at the centre, the land just east of the Dnipro River, around Orkhiv. Now that the Kerch Bridge is blown, if the Ukrainians can slice through to Melitopol, they cut off the entire Russian army west of this point. 

And the road to Melitopol is flat terrain without natural obstacles or defensive lines.

If the Ukrainians know what they are doing, they will have kept their largest force in reserve until now. Gaining ground on the flanks had little strategic value. All that was necessary was to keep the Russians engaged. I expect the Ukrainian ground gains were not really part of the plan, but the Russians proved to be weaker than the Ukrainians expected.

And they should attack now, before the bridge can be repaired, and before winter sets in. They may not succeed, for the same strategic considerations must be apparent to the Russians, but I would expect this to be the plan.

Now let's see if I know what I'm talking about as a military strategist...